Latest Papers

The latest papers published in the World Economics Journal.



Will the Current Money Growth Acceleration Increase Inflation? Will the Current Money Growth Acceleration Increase Inflation?: An Analysis of the US Situation
Tim Congdon, World Economics, June 2020
The coronavirus pandemic has not only come as a profound shock to the major economies, but also exposed tensions between leading schools of thought. Uncertainty has arisen about the medium- and long-term consequences of the policy responses to COVID-19. Will the pandemi ... More


Shedding Light on the Shadow Economy Shedding Light on the Shadow Economy: A Global Database and the Interaction with the Official One
Leandro Medina & Friedrich Schneider, World Economics, June 2020
The shadow or informal economy covers all economic activities which are hidden from official authorities for monetary, regulatory and institutional reasons. Although widely used, multiple indicator-multiple cause (MIMIC) models have been criticised, and we develop a mod ... More


Measuring EU-Wide Inequality Measuring EU-Wide Inequality
Michael Dauderstädt, World Economics, June 2020
EU-wide inequality is higher than official figures by Eurostat suggest. With a Gini coefficient of 0.35 and a quintile ratio of 8.4 in 2018 (5.8 at purchasing power parity), it reaches the level of US inequality. This is a major driver of migration and relocation of pro ... More


Is the European Union Failing the Viability Tests? Is the European Union Failing the Viability Tests?
Andreas V Georgiou, World Economics, June 2020
A union of states is there for various reasons but a fundamental one is to provide public goods that cannot be provided optimally by actions at the level of individual states. Such union-level public goods would be, for example, defence of the union against aggression b ... More


CPI in the Time of Coronavirus CPI in the Time of Coronavirus
Kam Yu, World Economics, June 2020
The spread of the COVID-19 around the world started in January 2020. Many countries implemented an activity lockdown after the World Health Organization announced pandemic status. Businesses have been ordered by governments to impose severe restrictions on their activit ... More


Hyperinflation in the General Government: German-Occupied Poland During World War II Hyperinflation in the General Government: German-Occupied Poland During World War II
Steve H. Hanke, Nicholas Krus & Joanna Gawlik, World Economics, June 2020
Newly discovered primary data reveals two previously undiscovered episodes of hyperinflation. They occurred in German-occupied Poland from late 1939 to early 1945. Nazi-occupied Poland, a territory then referred to as the General Government, experienced monthly inflatio ... More


Global Finance and Effectiveness of Macro-Policies Global Finance and Effectiveness of Macro-Policies
Biagio Bossone, World Economics, June 2020
The Portfolio Theory of Inflation (PTI) incorporates a global perspective on the analysis of macro policy effectiveness. According to the PTI, in open and internationally highly financially integrated economies: The intertemporal budget constraint (IBC) of governments i ... More


Can Money Turn Bad News into Good News? Can Money Turn Bad News into Good News?
Jan Libich, World Economics, June 2020
Over the past two decades, monetary policy has been used in unprecedented ways for macroeconomic and financial sector stabilization. This article argues that monetary policy, especially the unconventional measures (quantitative easing) implemented in the post-2008 perio ... More


Quant Bust 2020 Quant Bust 2020
Zura Kakushadze, World Economics, June 2020
We explain in a nontechnical fashion why dollar-neutral quant trading strategies (e.g. statistical arbitrage) suffered substantial losses (drawdowns) during the COVID-19 market sell-off. We discuss: (i) why such strategies work during “normal” times; (ii) the market reg ... More


Brazil at a Crossroads Brazil at a Crossroads: Political Economy, the Coronavirus, and Democracy
Michael Chibba, World Economics, June 2020
The comprehensive impact of the coronavirus has prompted Brazil’s political economy to take shape in a manner which is exposing actions that are not founded on good governance but rather on shenanigans, political manoeuvring and the promotion of personal agendas. This i ... More


The Epidemiology of Economic and Financial Crises The Epidemiology of Economic and Financial Crises
Graham Bird & Eric Pentecost, World Economics, June 2020
The COVID-19 crisis dramatically illustrates how viruses can rapidly spread across the globe with devastating effects. Increasing trade integration during the ‘first wave’ of globalisation provided a conduit through which economic disturbances could be transmitted betwe ... More


Mimicking a Buffer Fund for the Eurozone Mimicking a Buffer Fund for the Eurozone
Paul van den Noord, World Economics, June 2020
Eurozone fiscal buffer fund could be set up to finance transfers to countries triggered by the cyclical movements in their unemployment rate. Countries would contribute a fixed share of their GDP to the fund in good times. The receipts from the fund are found to signifi ... More


Can Pandemic Bonds Deliver on Their Promise? Can Pandemic Bonds Deliver on Their Promise?
Giovanna Maria Dora Dore, World Economics, June 2020
Epidemics are an unpredictable, though, recurrent feature of human history. With seven major outbreaks over the past twenty years, epidemics and pandemics are on the rise, and happening more frequently and closer to one another than before. Lack of funding makes develop ... More


Measuring Happiness Among Egypt’s Youth Measuring Happiness Among Egypt’s Youth
Heba Farida Ahmed Fathy El-laithy, Dina Magdy Armanious & Hadir Farag Abo Elazm, World Economics, June 2020
This article aims to assess happiness among young people aged 18–29 years in 2009 and 2014, using a multidimensional Happiness Index among Youth (HIY), based on the Survey of Young People in Egypt (SYPE). Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are applied to examine the r ... More


Macroeconomic Impact of Eurozone Debt Crisis on India Macroeconomic Impact of Eurozone Debt Crisis on India: Sensitivity Analysis Using Measures of Dependency
Vighneswara Swamy, World Economics, June 2020
The eurozone represents a significant market for emerging markets like India; hence, any stagnation or a downturn in the eurozone leaves a dent in their export growth. Sensitivity analysis using measures of direct and indirect export dependency through international pro ... More


Indian Rupee on the Back-Foot Against the British Pound Indian Rupee on the Back-Foot Against the British Pound: A Critical Analysis
Suraj E. Sudhakar, Akshika Jain & K.P. Nitha, World Economics, June 2020
In foreign exchange (forex) markets the Indian rupee has fallen against the British pound over a long period, for various reasons. India is the fastest-growing large economy in the world, with a rising middle class that makes it increasingly attractive to British export ... More


Migrant Workers Migrant Workers: Business and Employment Opportunities in Kashmir Valley
Aijaz Ahmad Turrey, World Economics, June 2020
This article covers immigrants to the Valley of Kashmir who coma from almost all Indian states despite conflict in the Valley. The Valley is entirely rural in character, having high unemployment but offering jobs and business opportunities to huge number of immigrants. ... More


Self-Help Groups and Women’s Empowerment Self-Help Groups and Women’s Empowerment
Santu Samanta, World Economics, June 2020
This article considers the working and growth of Self-Help Groups and their impact in empowering women in India. We study the activities of Self-Help Groups and identify the employment and livelihood skills of women in these groups. The study covers the operating system ... More


Major Problems Persist with UK Price Inflation Data Major Problems Persist with UK Price Inflation Data
World Economics, March 2020
The Economics Affairs Committee of the House of Lords has published a damning report on the measurement of inflation statistics in the UK. The House of Lords Report number 246 Measuring Inflation accuses the UK Statistics Authority of being at risk of a “breach of its ... More


Global Population Data Quality Ratings Global Population Data Quality Ratings
World Economics, March 2020
The accuracy of population data varies widely across countries. The most comprehensive data on the number of people living in a territory and their demographic profile, a vital component for public sector economic and social planning and also for private sector needs, i ... More


The Alarming Problems Caused By Misleading Trade Data The Alarming Problems Caused By Misleading Trade Data
World Economics, March 2020
The fact that world exports do not match world imports indicates that there are serious problems with official trade statistics. Far too few economists and politicians will try to understand the murky reality behind these increasingly unreliable data. ... More


The Debate Over the Depreciation of Intangible Capital The Debate Over the Depreciation of Intangible Capital
Andrew Smithers, World Economics, March 2020
Spending on intellectual property (IP) is classed in national income accounts (NIA) as investment and represents a proportion of total investment as measured. It is, however, rapidly depreciated so that it has only a minor impact on gross domestic product (GDP). Some e ... More


Measuring Modern Business Investment: A Case Study for Germany Measuring Modern Business Investment: A Case Study for Germany
Michael Grömling, World Economics, March 2020
An extended concept for intangible investment does not lead to additional investment momentum in the case of Germany. This corresponds to experiences with former extension of investments in national accounts. Also, growth in real GDP and the related labour productivity ... More


Climate Change and Economic Policy Climate Change and Economic Policy
Julian Gough, World Economics, March 2020
Analysis of data for the last two decades showed global temperatures on a plateau and little correlation of global temperatures with the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The so-called ‘consensus’ theory of climate change is currently failing to predict ... More


Tackling the Double Injustice: How Citizens Evaluate Climate and Welfare Policies Tackling the Double Injustice: How Citizens Evaluate Climate and Welfare Policies
Max Koch & Martin Fritz, World Economics, March 2020
Ambitious climate policies have distributional consequences. These require countervailing social policies to keep climate targets acceptable for the electorate. This article analyses data from the European Social Survey as to whether attitudes in relation to climate an ... More


Cryptocurrency Challenges Sovereign Currency Cryptocurrency Challenges Sovereign Currency
George C. Georgiou, World Economics, March 2020
All national and international monetary structures have evolved to assist in the creation and management of sovereign fiat currencies. This sovereign currency status quo was suddenly upended with the arrival of the first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, in 2008 which introduce ... More


New Theory of the Business Environment New Theory of the Business Environment: Comprehensive and multidimensional with political economy at its core
Michael Chibba, World Economics, March 2020
Political economy is a core factor in the business environment, where either convergence or divergence are essential characteristics. This paper outlines, with a formula, illustrations and five country ratings, a new theory of the business environment that is comprehens ... More


Fiscal Federalism: Data Analytics Perspective Fiscal Federalism: Data Analytics Perspective
Nitin Singh, World Economics, March 2020
Goods and service tax (GST) is a value-added tax which is levied on goods and services sold and consumed domestically within a country. Although GST is paid by customers it is remitted to the government by the businesses selling the goods and services. The implementatio ... More


Greek Economy: Between Optimism and Substandard Growth Greek Economy: Between Optimism and Substandard Growth
Theodore Pelagidis, World Economics, March 2020
Is Greece’s economy back to normal after the victory of liberal-conservatives in last summer’s elections? The Greek economy is certainly out of the doldrums but structural problems are still in place. The economy desperately needs foreign capital inflows, the most chall ... More


Coronavirus: The Case for Digital Money? Coronavirus: The Case for Digital Money?
Zura Kakushadze & Jim Kyung-Soo Liew , World Economics, March 2020
We discuss the advantages of adopting government-issued digital currencies and a supranational digital iCurrency. This will get rid of paper money, a ubiquitous medium for spreading germs, as highlighted by the recent coronavirus outbreak. We set forth three policy re ... More


The Impact of Income and Unemployment on Suicide in Scandinavian Countries The Impact of Income and Unemployment on Suicide in Scandinavian Countries
Balash Babayeva, World Economics, March 2020
This article experimentally investigates how economic factors in Scandinavian countries affected the suicide rates between 1991 and 2010. Notwithstanding factors affecting suicide in Scandinavian countries have been studied, there are no studies on the relationship betw ... More


The Socioeconomic Plight of Carpet Weavers of Kashmir The Socioeconomic Plight of Carpet Weavers of Kashmir
Tariq Ahmad Lone, Tariq Ahmad Bhat & Parveez Ahmad Lone, World Economics, March 2020
Weaving is a method of textile production in which two distinct sets of yarns or threads are interlaced at right angles to form a fabric or cloth. Kashmir handicraft products have earned worldwide fame for their attractive designs, functional utility and high-quality cr ... More


How to Increase your Countries GDP How to Increase your Countries GDP
World Economics Research Programme
World Economics, December 2019
There are three ways to increase the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of any country. First, by producing more goods and services in a given time frame. This is not easy. Second, by fiddling the figures, a method often adopted by politicians of all kinds, as the econom ... More


Global Trade Data Global Trade Data
World Economics, December 2019
There are serious problems with official trade statistics since according to the IMF in 2016 the world imported US$339 billion more than it exported. The Ricardian concept of comparative advantage in final goods is no longer fully relevant to explain trade between count ... More


Global Population Data Accuracy Ratings Global Population Data Accuracy Ratings
World Economics Research Programme
World Economics, December 2019
The accuracy of population data varies widely across countries. The most comprehensive data on the number of people living in a territory and their demographic profile, a vital component for public sector economic and social planning and also for private sector needs, i ... More


Central Banking and Climate Change Central Banking and Climate Change: A Policy Revolution Under Way
Stuart P.M. Mackintosh, World Economics, December 2019
A central bank revolution on climate change policy parallel to the 2015 Paris Agreement on steps to limit global temperature increases in this century may be under way, to achieve the essential collective carbon neutrality goals. In 2015 Mark Carney, governor of the Ban ... More


Thrown Away Thrice: The global second-hand clothes trade expires on the beaches of Africa Thrown Away Thrice: The global second-hand clothes trade expires on the beaches of Africa
Lionel Stanbrook, World Economics, December 2019
Thousands of garment-making businesses throughout West Africa have been destroyed over the past few generations by his shabby international exploitation which was been hand in glove with the elimination of traditional garment-making businesses by aggressive European, US ... More


The Cause of Disinflation The Cause of Disinflation
Jang C. Jin, World Economics, December 2019
An empirical model estimates the effects of central bank independence and increasing globalisation on recent disinflation. The model that includes the globalisation measure is found to fit the data better than the one with central bank independence alone. Using pooled s ... More


Resurrecting Industrial Policy as Development Policy based on Korean Experiences Resurrecting Industrial Policy as Development Policy based on Korean Experiences
Sung-Hee Jwa & Sung-Kyu Lee, World Economics, December 2019
The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the key economic policy paradigm of the Park Chung-hee administration in Korea was based on a ‘heavy-chemical industrialisation policy’, not ‘export-led growth policy’ as insisted by mainstream economics academia. It also ... More


Exchange Rate Policy in Emerging Economics Exchange Rate Policy in Emerging Economics: Should Floating Be Clean or Dirty?
Graham Bird, World Economics, December 2019
In the period since the global economic and financial crisis in 2008/09, emerging economies have encountered both surges and reversals of international capital. Rising interest rates and economic growth in the USA may in the future lead to them facing further relatively ... More


Measuring the Effects of Regional Trade Agreements in South Africa: A Comprehensive Review Measuring the Effects of Regional Trade Agreements in South Africa: A Comprehensive Review
Kore Marc Guei, World Economics, December 2019
There is strong evidence that regional trade agreements in force have caused South Africa to increase its aggregate trade with less efficient member countries at the expense of the more efficient ones. Using disaggregated data the European Union Free Trade Agreement ha ... More


iCurrency? iCurrency?
Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, World Economics, December 2019
We discuss the idea of a purely algorithmic universal world iCurrency in light of recent developments, including Libra. We analyze the Libra proposal, including the stability and volatility aspects, and discuss various issues to be addressed. For example, one cannot exp ... More


Combining Growth and Gender Diagnostics for the Benefit of Both Combining Growth and Gender Diagnostics for the Benefit of Both
Elena Ianchovichina & Danny Leipziger, World Economics, December 2019
Women’s economic empowerment is not a new issue, but it continues to challenge both governments and development assistance agencies. Progress in closing the gender gap in labor force participation has stalled despite closing the gender gap in education. One reason for ... More


Does Phillips Curve Really Exist in India? Does Phillips Curve Really Exist in India?
Tariq Ahmad Bhat, Tariq Ahmad Bhat, Tariq Ahmad Lone & Towseef Mohi ud Din, World Economics, December 2019
The hypothetical trade-off relationship between inflation and unemployment rate known as the Phillips Curve. It plays an important role in the decision-making process, to stabilise the economy and to target these variables to keep them as low as possible. This study a ... More