Latest Papers

The latest papers published in the World Economics Journal.



GDP Upgrade: How Can One Measure the Quality of Economic Growth? GDP Upgrade: How Can One Measure the Quality of Economic Growth?
Alexey Kuprianov, World Economics, December 2020
Sustainable per capita economic growth is possible if the quality of goods and services produced by the economy increases. US GDP growth may be underestimated by 0.4–0.6% per year because of unmeasured (undetected) improvement in the quality of goods and services. Calcu ... More


Statistical Data Collection Challenges amid COVID-19 Pandemic Statistical Data Collection Challenges amid COVID-19 Pandemic
Theodore Pelagidis & Eleftheria Kostika, World Economics, December 2020
The importance of reliable statistical data is even more urgent in the context of the coronavirus crisis, in terms of managing the risks for public health, restarting the world economy and addressing the long-term economic and social impact of the pandemic. Government l ... More


Tackling the Undeclared Economy Tackling the Undeclared Economy: The Effectiveness of Repressive and Trust-building Strategies
Colin C Williams & Ioana Horodnic, World Economics, December 2020
Are participants in the undeclared economy rational economic actors who can be swayed by increasing the expected penalties and likelihood of detection? Or are they social actors who participate in reaction to a lack of vertical trust (in government) and horizontal trust ... More


Analysing Data Issues in Measuring Inequality in UK Regions Analysing Data Issues in Measuring Inequality in UK Regions
Julian Gough, World Economics, December 2020
Converting official nominal regional GDP data for 2017 to real values, using an approximate deflator for regional price levels, reduced the size of the London economy by 12% or £51 billion. Using real GDP per head as an indicator of prosperity revealed London to be the ... More


Bringing Global Finance into Macro-Policy Analysis Bringing Global Finance into Macro-Policy Analysis
Biagio Bossone, World Economics, December 2020
The Portfolio Theory of Inflation (PTI) brings global finance into macroeconomic policy analysis, and addresses Obstfeld and Taylor’s (2017) remark that standard models of macroeconomic stabilization do not pay sufficient attention to finance. In particular, the PTI app ... More


Measuring the Efficacy of Financial Intermediation Measuring the Efficacy of Financial Intermediation: A Transaction Costs Approach
Vighneswara Swamy, World Economics, December 2020
This study focuses on the transaction costs of borrowing by the poor and provides an empirical assessment. In doing so, this study addresses two salient questions: (a) what are the transaction costs for borrowing poor? and (b) how significant are these transaction costs ... More


Financial Inclusion Index Financial Inclusion Index: A Comprehensive Measure
Mughees Tahir Bhalli & Mala Raghavan, World Economics, December 2020
Existing indices that are used to measure financial inclusion are not comprehensive. This study reports on the development and testing of a comprehensive measure of financial inclusion. The measure was applied to 189 countries from 2010 to 2015. Among the top 50 highly ... More


Relationship of Economic Freedom to Economic Performance, Gender Equality, and Social Progress Relationship of Economic Freedom to Economic Performance, Gender Equality, and Social Progress
Hannah Michelle Russell, Wayne Tervo , Donald L. Ariail & Lawrence Murphy Smith, World Economics, December 2020
This study examines the relationship of economic freedom, as measured by the Economic Freedom Index, to economic performance (GDP), gender equality, and social progress. Prior research suggests that business activity is more robust in societies that are more economicall ... More


Measuring Prosperity in Regions of the UK Measuring Prosperity in Regions of the UK
Julian Gough, World Economics, September 2020
This article provides updated estimates of prosperity in regions of the United Kingdom using two measures - GDP per head and Gross Disposable Household Income per head in 2017. Official nominal data on these two measures is deflated by two approximate regional price ind ... More


Enterprise Size Classification in Africa Enterprise Size Classification in Africa: A Tale of Two Definitions
Eugene Bempong Nyantakyi, World Economics, September 2020
Comparing enterprise size across countries is a key challenge in international development—SME definitions used in international development are often criticised as ineffective and a source of mistargeting of international development resources in the private sector. T ... More


What Shipping Can Tell Us About Europe’s Efforts to Face the Risk of COVID-19-Induced ‘Japanification’ What Shipping Can Tell Us About Europe’s Efforts to Face the Risk of COVID-19-Induced ‘Japanification’
Theodore Pelagidis & Hercules Haralambides, World Economics, September 2020
Shipping leads the ‘dance’ on the way up and if this is indeed true, the post-COVID-19 economic recovery should not be long, if one is to judge from the relative prosperity of containerised shipping as of Q2, 2020. Most EU member states may face a new risk ahead: ‘Japan ... More


The Impact of the Bonus Culture on the UK Economy The Impact of the Bonus Culture on the UK Economy
Andrew Smithers, World Economics, September 2020
The decline in UK tangible investment since 2000 has led to a sharp decline in labour productivity and the trend growth rate of the UK economy. A similar decline in the USA was caused by the perverse incentives of the bonus culture, but due to poorer statistics the conn ... More


Modern Political Economy and Colonialism: The Case of Bolivia Modern Political Economy and Colonialism: The Case of Bolivia
Michael Chibba, World Economics, September 2020
The November 2019 coup d’état in Bolivia, orchestrated by the armed forces, brought an abrupt end to President Evo Morales’s modern approach to governance and development. The coup also brought a return to colonialism or neo-colonialism. However, the elections slated fo ... More


Evaluating Demographic Paths in the Long Run Evaluating Demographic Paths in the Long Run: Output per Capita and Intergenerational Income Distribution
Ross Guest, World Economics, September 2020
This article is motivated by potential changes to fertility and migration patterns that may result from major global economic and/or health crises such as the COVID-19 global pandemic. The focus is on the long-term effects of changes to fertility and migration on both ... More


Mitigating Economic Losses of Fraud Mitigating Economic Losses of Fraud: Data Analytics Perspective
Nitin Singh, World Economics, September 2020
Economic loss caused by fraud has become a subject of concern for countries globally. Digital world also provides data and these can be leveraged to detect and prevent fraud while also applying forensic analytics to recover the loss. Although gathering and collating dat ... More


Funding Economic Development and the Role of National Development Banks Funding Economic Development and the Role of National Development Banks: The Case of Cyprus
Helen Kavvadia & Savvakis C. Savvides, World Economics, September 2020
Prior to its privatisation in 2008, the Cyprus Development Bank played an important role in the economic development of Cyprus, intermediating international finance from multilateral development banks. This function was subsequently undertaken by commercial banks, whic ... More


Structural Reform, IMF Conditionality and the ‘Goldilocks Problem’ Structural Reform, IMF Conditionality and the ‘Goldilocks Problem’
Graham Bird, World Economics, September 2020
Recent empirical research suggests that structural reform has a significant positive effect on future economic growth. Following the proliferation of structural conditionality in IMF programmes in the 1980s and 1990s, the ‘streamlining’ initiative begun in the early 200 ... More


Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination During Fiscal Dominance Regimes Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination During Fiscal Dominance Regimes
Vighneswara Swamy, World Economics, September 2020
This study empirically examines the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy by using vector auto regressions (VAR) and a vector error-correction model (VECM) and explores the need for coordination. • We also analyse a Stackelberg interaction model with government ... More


Will the Current Money Growth Acceleration Increase Inflation? Will the Current Money Growth Acceleration Increase Inflation?: An Analysis of the US Situation
Tim Congdon, World Economics, June 2020
The coronavirus pandemic has not only come as a profound shock to the major economies, but also exposed tensions between leading schools of thought. Uncertainty has arisen about the medium- and long-term consequences of the policy responses to COVID-19. Will the pandemi ... More


Shedding Light on the Shadow Economy Shedding Light on the Shadow Economy: A Global Database and the Interaction with the Official One
Leandro Medina & Friedrich Schneider, World Economics, June 2020
The shadow or informal economy covers all economic activities which are hidden from official authorities for monetary, regulatory and institutional reasons. Although widely used, multiple indicator-multiple cause (MIMIC) models have been criticised, and we develop a mod ... More


Measuring EU-Wide Inequality Measuring EU-Wide Inequality
Michael Dauderstädt, World Economics, June 2020
EU-wide inequality is higher than official figures by Eurostat suggest. With a Gini coefficient of 0.35 and a quintile ratio of 8.4 in 2018 (5.8 at purchasing power parity), it reaches the level of US inequality. This is a major driver of migration and relocation of pro ... More


Is the European Union Failing the Viability Tests? Is the European Union Failing the Viability Tests?
Andreas V Georgiou, World Economics, June 2020
A union of states is there for various reasons but a fundamental one is to provide public goods that cannot be provided optimally by actions at the level of individual states. Such union-level public goods would be, for example, defence of the union against aggression b ... More


CPI in the Time of Coronavirus CPI in the Time of Coronavirus
Kam Yu, World Economics, June 2020
The spread of the COVID-19 around the world started in January 2020. Many countries implemented an activity lockdown after the World Health Organization announced pandemic status. Businesses have been ordered by governments to impose severe restrictions on their activit ... More


Hyperinflation in the General Government: German-Occupied Poland During World War II Hyperinflation in the General Government: German-Occupied Poland During World War II
Steve H. Hanke, Nicholas Krus & Joanna Gawlik, World Economics, June 2020
Newly discovered primary data reveals two previously undiscovered episodes of hyperinflation. They occurred in German-occupied Poland from late 1939 to early 1945. Nazi-occupied Poland, a territory then referred to as the General Government, experienced monthly inflatio ... More


Global Finance and Effectiveness of Macro-Policies Global Finance and Effectiveness of Macro-Policies
Biagio Bossone, World Economics, June 2020
The Portfolio Theory of Inflation (PTI) incorporates a global perspective on the analysis of macro policy effectiveness. According to the PTI, in open and internationally highly financially integrated economies: The intertemporal budget constraint (IBC) of governments i ... More


Can Money Turn Bad News into Good News? Can Money Turn Bad News into Good News?
Jan Libich, World Economics, June 2020
Over the past two decades, monetary policy has been used in unprecedented ways for macroeconomic and financial sector stabilization. This article argues that monetary policy, especially the unconventional measures (quantitative easing) implemented in the post-2008 perio ... More


Quant Bust 2020 Quant Bust 2020
Zura Kakushadze, World Economics, June 2020
We explain in a nontechnical fashion why dollar-neutral quant trading strategies (e.g. statistical arbitrage) suffered substantial losses (drawdowns) during the COVID-19 market sell-off. We discuss: (i) why such strategies work during “normal” times; (ii) the market reg ... More


Brazil at a Crossroads Brazil at a Crossroads: Political Economy, the Coronavirus, and Democracy
Michael Chibba, World Economics, June 2020
The comprehensive impact of the coronavirus has prompted Brazil’s political economy to take shape in a manner which is exposing actions that are not founded on good governance but rather on shenanigans, political manoeuvring and the promotion of personal agendas. This i ... More


The Epidemiology of Economic and Financial Crises The Epidemiology of Economic and Financial Crises
Graham Bird & Eric Pentecost, World Economics, June 2020
The COVID-19 crisis dramatically illustrates how viruses can rapidly spread across the globe with devastating effects. Increasing trade integration during the ‘first wave’ of globalisation provided a conduit through which economic disturbances could be transmitted betwe ... More


Mimicking a Buffer Fund for the Eurozone Mimicking a Buffer Fund for the Eurozone
Paul van den Noord, World Economics, June 2020
Eurozone fiscal buffer fund could be set up to finance transfers to countries triggered by the cyclical movements in their unemployment rate. Countries would contribute a fixed share of their GDP to the fund in good times. The receipts from the fund are found to signifi ... More


Can Pandemic Bonds Deliver on Their Promise? Can Pandemic Bonds Deliver on Their Promise?
Giovanna Maria Dora Dore, World Economics, June 2020
Epidemics are an unpredictable, though, recurrent feature of human history. With seven major outbreaks over the past twenty years, epidemics and pandemics are on the rise, and happening more frequently and closer to one another than before. Lack of funding makes develop ... More


Measuring Happiness Among Egypt’s Youth Measuring Happiness Among Egypt’s Youth
Heba Farida Ahmed Fathy El-laithy, Dina Magdy Armanious & Hadir Farag Abo Elazm, World Economics, June 2020
This article aims to assess happiness among young people aged 18–29 years in 2009 and 2014, using a multidimensional Happiness Index among Youth (HIY), based on the Survey of Young People in Egypt (SYPE). Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are applied to examine the r ... More


Macroeconomic Impact of Eurozone Debt Crisis on India Macroeconomic Impact of Eurozone Debt Crisis on India: Sensitivity Analysis Using Measures of Dependency
Vighneswara Swamy, World Economics, June 2020
The eurozone represents a significant market for emerging markets like India; hence, any stagnation or a downturn in the eurozone leaves a dent in their export growth. Sensitivity analysis using measures of direct and indirect export dependency through international pro ... More


Indian Rupee on the Back-Foot Against the British Pound Indian Rupee on the Back-Foot Against the British Pound: A Critical Analysis
Suraj E. Sudhakar, Akshika Jain & K.P. Nitha, World Economics, June 2020
In foreign exchange (forex) markets the Indian rupee has fallen against the British pound over a long period, for various reasons. India is the fastest-growing large economy in the world, with a rising middle class that makes it increasingly attractive to British export ... More


Migrant Workers Migrant Workers: Business and Employment Opportunities in Kashmir Valley
Aijaz Ahmad Turrey, World Economics, June 2020
This article covers immigrants to the Valley of Kashmir who coma from almost all Indian states despite conflict in the Valley. The Valley is entirely rural in character, having high unemployment but offering jobs and business opportunities to huge number of immigrants. ... More


Self-Help Groups and Women’s Empowerment Self-Help Groups and Women’s Empowerment
Santu Samanta, World Economics, June 2020
This article considers the working and growth of Self-Help Groups and their impact in empowering women in India. We study the activities of Self-Help Groups and identify the employment and livelihood skills of women in these groups. The study covers the operating system ... More