The Informal Economy of the BRICSThis article evaluates the impact of trade liberalisation on the informal economy in the BRICS countries, which have significant unorganised sectors and trade policy changes. The article uses panel data from 1996 to 2015 to measure informality based on the method of Kaufmann and Kaliberda, which estimates the size of the informal sector as the difference between official GDP an...
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Formal-Informal Dichotomy of Work in IndiaThis study tries to comprehend the facets of the increasing informalisation of work in India. It uses a deductive approach to analyse the secondary data and literature on the subject. Informalisation of the workforce is not a unique phenomenon restricted to India. Reforms have expedited the informalisation of work in India, which has a detrimental impact on the nature of newly ...
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The Shadow Economy and Its DeterminantsThe shadow economy includes economic activities that are not recognized and unregulated by public authorities. These activities cause significant challenges for policymakers by reducing tax revenue and weakening regulatory frameworks. Understanding the factors that influence the shadow economy is crucial for developing effective policies to mitigate its adverse effects. This s...
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The Political Economy of ChoiceThe article aims to explore the relationship between the misery index and voter decisions, positioning the misery index as a tool to assess macroeconomic policy effectiveness. It employs analysis and synthesis for voter behaviour patterns, the index method for calculating the misery index, and comparison methods to link macroeconomic processes with voter behaviour. Macroeconomi...
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The Components of the International Property Rights Index that Matter for Economic GrowthThe International Property Rights Index (IPRI) is considered a credible source of information for the public and policymakers, focusing on its components’ impact on economic growth. The study analysed the GDP per capita of 13 EU countries over 13 years (2009–2021) to assess the significance of IPRI components on economic growth. The research utilized correlation and regression ...
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Trade Reforms and Smooth Labour Market Adjustments in India?There is a growing concern among economists that the trade policy reforms resulting from India’s growing participation in various multilateral and bilateral agreements has not benefitted all workers engaged in the manufacturing sector. As per existing literature, reform-led reallocation of workers from contracting to expanding sectors will be relatively less costly, if intra-in...
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Statistical Data Collection Challenges amid COVID-19 PandemicThe importance of reliable statistical data is even more urgent in the context of the coronavirus crisis, in terms of managing the risks for public health, restarting the world economy and addressing the long-term economic and social impact of the pandemic. Government lockdowns, social distancing and work from home restrictions, imposed to contain the spread of COVID-19, pose i...
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Inequality: A Problem for the Indian EconomyThe economic slow-down and COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted India’s extreme crisis inequality. India is an unequal country: 84% of household sector income declined in 2021, at the same time that the number of billionaires went up from 102 to 142. According to the World Inequality Report, the income of the top 10% of the population is 20 times that of the bottom 50% and this g...
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Governments Manipulate DataGovernments widely manipulate official economic and social data—but the public tends to disregard this fact. There is extensive empirical evidence that governments extensively manipulate official data. National statistical offices should be independent of their government to fight such manipulation, and alternative data producers should be supported. The public should be aware ...
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A Note on the Lódz Ghetto HyperinflationPrimary data reveals one new instance of hyperinflation occurring in the Lódz Ghetto in 1944. Two instances of hyperinflation in the Lódz Ghetto occurred during World War II; in March of 1942 and February of 1944, monthly inflation in the ghetto reached 232.42% and 321.16%, respectively. The 1944 episode of hyperinflation is the 67th episode in world history and the sixth insta...
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Trade in the ShadowsAccurate, timely and reliable statistics on international trade in goods and services are of considerable academic and policy relevance. A major source of illicit financial flows (IFFs) out of developing countries accrues from the under-invoicing of commodity exports. Researchers have highlighted the critical importance of reliable trade data to estimate the magnitude of IFFs a...
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Global vs Local Ethics of Official StatisticsThe paper explores the philosophical underpinnings of the ethics of official statistics and provides a basic conceptual classification. It distinguishes between universal ethics, supranational codifications, and national/local ethics, and examines these distinctions through various philosophical perspectives. The paper emphasizes that ethics of official statistics can only be f...
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Measuring the Informal Economy in MoroccoThis paper, relying on the electricity consumption method, attempts to both measure the size of the informal economy in Morocco and construct a larger time series dataset for the Moroccan informal economy. We use the Kaufmann and Kaliberda (1996) model to calculate the size of the informal economy over the period 1971 to 2014. The results show that this hidden part of the econ...
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Are Purchasing Power Parity Exchange Rates Misleading in Oil-Rich Gulf Countries?This article examines the accuracy of purchasing power parity (PPP) rates in Saudi Arabia. It highlights concerns about the perceived wealth of Saudi citizens based on interviews with American expatriates and wage statistics. It discusses the limitations of the Saudi International Comparison Program (ICP) data, including variations in data quality, differences in product select...
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Assessing Economic Data Integrity Amidst Sovereign DefaultThe sovereign default of Sri Lanka in April 2022 has sparked concerns about the accuracy and reliability of official economic data, including GDP, inflation, and unemployment figures. The integration of statistical agencies under government ministries in developing countries like Sri Lanka raises concerns about political influence and data integrity. The inflation data in Sri L...
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Global Imbalances After COVID and WarGlobal imbalances as reflected by current account balance of payments deficits in some countries and surpluses in others increased sharply during 2019–23. Conventional balance of payments theory that emphasizes aggregate demand and factors affecting expenditure and the monetary sector do not provide a complete explanation of the imbalances. Supply side factors associated with t...
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Premature DeindustrializationThe article investigates premature deindustrialization in 13 countries in the Middle East and North African region from 2007 to 2019. Premature deindustrialization occurs when countries experience a decline in manufacturing employment/output before reaching advanced income levels, as coined by Rodrick in 2016. The study uses a System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) analysis...
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Measuring the Non-observed Economy in VietnamThis article takes advantage of new political demand at the government’s highest level to focus on measurement of the informal economy in Vietnam from a statistical perspective. The main challenges, concepts and definitions regarding the informal economy within the framework of the non-observed economy are reviewed. A discussion of alternative methodologies for measuring the ...
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Shedding Light on the Shadow EconomyThe shadow or informal economy covers all economic activities which are hidden from official authorities for monetary, regulatory and institutional reasons. Although widely used, multiple indicator-multiple cause (MIMIC) models have been criticised, and we develop a modified model and database covering 157 countries over the years 1991 to 2017. We tested our model using satelli...
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Predicting Probability of Soft-Landing, Stagflation and Monetary Policy PivotsThe study introduces a new framework to predict the probability of stagflation, soft-landing, and recession. It identifies 13 episodes each of stagflation and soft-landings in the U.S. economy post-1950, and notes 11 recessions as suggested by the NBER. An ordered probit framework is used to generate one-year-out probabilities for stagflation, recession, and soft-landing, with ...
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