Assessing Economic Data Quality

The paper explores a variety of data analytics methods—such as Benford’s Law for detecting manipulation, Markov Switching Models for economic cycle analysis, time-series anomaly detection for data integrity, and volatility analysis for stability—to assess the quality of economic data. It highlights the use of advanced techniques like Bayesian inference and resampling (e.g., bootstrap methods) alongside cross-source comparisons—such as GDP validation with satellite data, inflation checks with online pricing, and employment trends with job posting data—to identify discrepancies and enhance reliability. Thematic analysis reveals an evolving landscape of economic data assessment, progressing from probabilistic approaches to resampling techniques, with interdisciplinary integration of data analytics, econometrics, and business policy to address data quality challenges like noise, biases, and structural shifts. While these methods improve economic forecasting and policy decisions, limitations persist, including sensitivity to model assumptions, regional biases in alternative data sources, and challenges in capturing informal economies, prompting future research into advanced machine learning and hybrid validation models.

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The Mar-a-Lago Accord and Beyond

In addition to policies focusing on trade, the Trump Administration has also proposed policies that will affect the international monetary system. The so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord envisages putting pressure on other countries to help reduce the value of the US dollar. The Mar-a-Lago Accord is loosely modelled on the Plaza Accord of 1985, but the world is a very different place in 2025. Trying to eliminate bi-lateral trade deficits is a misplaced policy, as is exclusive reliance on dollar depreciation to achieve it. The contemporary policies of the US Administration are likely to have significant, far-reaching and lasting negative effects on the nature and operation of the international monetary system and the world economy.

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Assisting Ukraine in War

The paper proposes GDP-contingent loans (GCLs) as a novel war-financing mechanism for Ukraine, linking repayments to economic performance (e.g., real GDP growth) and thus balancing donor burden and sustainable repayment. GCLs are inspired by income-contingent loans used in higher education; featuring a repayment-free threshold (e.g., pre-war GDP levels) and repayments as a proportion of each year’s GDP growth (e.g., 35% or 50%). Simulations comparing GCLs and standard loans (SLs) under Ukraine’s context (e.g., $100 billion loan, 2025–2045) show GCLs prevent debt traps and stagnation by pausing repayments during recessions and pre-recovery phases, unlike SLs, which impose fixed burdens regardless of economic conditions. Incorporating fiscal multipliers highlights GCLs’ superiority, as SLs’ early repayments reduce GDP growth (e.g., $232 billion by 2049 vs. $301 billion under GCLs), while GCLs’ countercyclical design supports recovery. Our analysis suggests that a GCL is a valuable debt-management instrument that would benefit both lenders and Ukraine (or any crisis-struck country); offering lower default risk, better income smoothing, and greater political acceptability.

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The Ripple Effects of Economic Sanctions

Economic sanctions on Iran, Pakistan, Russia, and Cuba from 1990 to 2022 restrict trade, and impact population growth and life expectancy, yet paradoxically increases GDP per capita as these countries adapt by diversifying trade partners, though this comes with significant socioeconomic costs. The study reveals that sanctions lead to surging unemployment due to trade disruptions, increase dependency rates, reduce consumer spending, and exacerbate poverty, inequality, and social unrest in the targeted nations. Sanctions destabilise markets in these countries, causing currency depreciation, inflation, and liquidity crises, which hinder investment and economic recovery, amplifying the broader ripple effects throughout their economies.

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Evolving Power Structures in Global Governance

The international system has shifted from unipolarity to multipolarity, with emerging powers like China, India, and the European Union gaining influence, reducing the dominance of Western-led institutions such as the World Bank and IMF, as evidenced by economic data like GDP growth and FDI trends. The study analyses this transition using Offensive Realism, which highlights power competition, and Neoliberal Institutionalism, which emphasises cooperation through institutions, supported by empirical evidence of rising alternative frameworks like BRICS, the SCO, and the AIIB. Multipolarity brings opportunities for economic diversification and balanced governance but also challenges, including fragmented decision-making, regional rivalries, and declining influence of traditional financial bodies, alongside increased military spending, particularly by China. To ensure stability in this evolving order, the paper advocates for structural reforms in international institutions to reflect new power dynamics, enhanced multilateral diplomacy, and updated security and economic crisis management strategies.

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Tangible and Intangible Capital

Major changes in national accounting were introduced between 1999 and 2012 by recategorizing spending on intellectual property (IP or IPP) as ‘final’ rather than ‘intermediate’ output. The changes, which sought to give more weight to the impact of technology on the economy, were accepted for their aprioristic plausibility. Their validity can, however, be tested by measuring the returns on equity when IP is treated either as a form of final output or of intermediate output. When IP is treated as intermediate the returns on equity are consistent with those derived independently from stock market data, but when IP is categorized as final output they are not. The change has therefore been a mistake and should be rescinded. This error is one of many examples of a widespread, unrealistic, indeed romantic attitude to technology, which has been encouraged by the stock market success of high technology companies and the tendency of journalists and investors to confuse the economy with the stock market. Growth depends on improvements in technology and the incentives or restraints on corporate management to exploit them. We do not appear to be able to accelerate the rate at which technology improves. But we can change incentives. The romantic attitude to technology is hindering changes to incentives and thus holding back growth. One of the adverse consequences of the error made in recategorizing IP has been to divert attention from the need to stimulate tangible investment, which is the only policy likely to significantly accelerate trend growth. The key incentives are taxes and subsidies. Corporation tax falls on investment, not on shareholders, and its net revenue should be reduced by cutting the rate or increasing the subsidies on tangible investment.

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Growth of an Economic Giant

The economic expansion of the People's Republic of China is the most rapid continuous increase by a major economy in world history. China has become an economic giant, the world’s second-largest economy based on GDP and the largest based on purchasing power parity. This study identifies major historical events across millennia relevant to China’s continual economic development. For example, early Chinese accounting practices provided basic conceptual benefits that were similar to modern Western practices. Confucius’ instructions about benevolence, morality, loyalty, unity, and trustworthiness fashioned a framework to guide individuals on interactions with others, which had a significant and enduring influence on the culture and business environment in China. Findings offer insights into China’s history, from ancient origins to the present day, notably, the business and accounting practices that laid the groundwork for China’s modern-day economic growth.

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Global vs Local Ethics of Official Statistics

The paper explores the philosophical underpinnings of the ethics of official statistics and provides a basic conceptual classification. It distinguishes between universal ethics, supranational codifications, and national/local ethics, and examines these distinctions through various philosophical perspectives. The paper emphasizes that ethics of official statistics can only be fully understood in the context of their foundational objective(s), whether universal or alternative. It proposes that the process of discovering ethics involves critique and reformulation to address deficiencies, given that local approaches often lead to statistical quality that is inconsistent with the demands of globalization and integration for highly reliable and internationally comparable statistics produced as a global public good.

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Global Imbalances After COVID and War

Global imbalances as reflected by current account balance of payments deficits in some countries and surpluses in others increased sharply during 2019–23. Conventional balance of payments theory that emphasizes aggregate demand and factors affecting expenditure and the monetary sector do not provide a complete explanation of the imbalances. Supply side factors associated with the COVID 19 pandemic and the Russia/Ukraine war played a key role through their impact on commodity prices and transportation costs. A full understanding of global imbalances requires political factors and natural events to be incorporated. There is a need to look, beneath, behind and beyond the economics. Projecting future imbalances is difficult since many of the determining factors carry a high degree of uncertainty and interact with one another. In principle, greater international macroeconomic policy coordination could help to reduce future imbalances, but political economy factors make this difficult to achieve.

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The Political Economy of Choice

The article aims to explore the relationship between the misery index and voter decisions, positioning the misery index as a tool to assess macroeconomic policy effectiveness. It employs analysis and synthesis for voter behaviour patterns, the index method for calculating the misery index, and comparison methods to link macroeconomic processes with voter behaviour. Macroeconomic indicators significantly influence voter decisions, demonstrating the misery index's utility in evaluating macroeconomic indicators. The misery index for 2019–2022 shows Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and Sudan in the worst positions, while Ireland, China, Switzerland, and Japan are the best. The coronavirus pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war exacerbated the misery index, causing economic recessions and inflationary pressures globally, particularly in Eastern and Central Europe.

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A Note on the Lódz Ghetto Hyperinflation

Primary data reveals one new instance of hyperinflation occurring in the Lódz Ghetto in 1944. Two instances of hyperinflation in the Lódz Ghetto occurred during World War II; in March of 1942 and February of 1944, monthly inflation in the ghetto reached 232.42% and 321.16%, respectively. The 1944 episode of hyperinflation is the 67th episode in world history and the sixth instance of hyperinflation documented in Poland, making Poland the country with the most hyperinflations in world history.

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Premature Deindustrialization

The article investigates premature deindustrialization in 13 countries in the Middle East and North African region from 2007 to 2019. Premature deindustrialization occurs when countries experience a decline in manufacturing employment/output before reaching advanced income levels, as coined by Rodrick in 2016. The study uses a System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) analysis and finds that higher population and higher per capita GDP influence industrialization patterns. To prevent premature deindustrialization, MENA region governments need to address institutional weaknesses and structural challenges through appropriate policies.

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The Shadow Economy and Its Determinants

The shadow economy includes economic activities that are not recognized and unregulated by public authorities. These activities cause significant challenges for policymakers by reducing tax revenue and weakening regulatory frameworks. Understanding the factors that influence the shadow economy is crucial for developing effective policies to mitigate its adverse effects. This study aims to compile, explore, and analyze previous studies on the shadow economy and identify its determinants. This study uses the PRISMA methodology (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) to conduct a systematic literature review on the shadow economy. 25 articles that fit these objectives were selected and analyzed. The study results indicate that eight determinants affect the shadow economy: corruption, Institutional Quality, Economic Development, Taxes, Government, Financial Development, Globalization, and Industrial Development. To tackle the shadow economy, a comprehensive approach that includes institutional improvements, fair tax policies, enhanced transparency, strong law enforcement, and inclusive economic development is necessary. Further research and in-depth analysis of these factors can help develop more effective strategies to reduce the shadow economy's adverse impacts.

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The International Liquidity Concept and Developing Economies’ Foreign Exchange Markets

The concept is introduced and its importance for macroeconomic analysis in developing and emerging economies is highlighted. International liquidity is defined as the sum of: i) Central bank’s gross international reserves, ii) Resident banks’ international liquid assets, iii) International currency notes held by resident agents. The paper discusses the unique characteristics of foreign exchange markets in developing and emerging economies, emphasizing their local nature. It is argued that the exchange rate in these economies is determined by the country’s international liquidity market.

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The Components of the International Property Rights Index that Matter for Economic Growth

The International Property Rights Index (IPRI) is considered a credible source of information for the public and policymakers, focusing on its components’ impact on economic growth. The study analysed the GDP per capita of 13 EU countries over 13 years (2009–2021) to assess the significance of IPRI components on economic growth. The research utilized correlation and regression analyses, particularly the Hausman-Taylor method, to evaluate the relationship between IPRI components and economic growth. The study found a positive correlation between IPRI and GDP per capita, highlighting the crucial role of IPRI components in driving economic growth.

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How Share Prices Fluctuate

The stationarity of the stock market’s value (q) and the mean reversion of its real return are its most obvious and exceptional characteristics. • These characteristics allow the cost of capital to be calculated, and the results are incompatible with the consensus growth model. The Stock Market Model (SMM) includes these features. It is testable and robust when tested; it is therefore the model used in this paper. The ex-post identity of investment and savings requires an ex post identity of the flow of savings available to finance the equity and debt proportions of new investment. This identity pulls q to fair value. Only temporary fluctuations in q around fair value are possible because net issues of equity will either depress net worth, relative to share prices, if q is above fair value, or boost it, if it is below. Changes in nominal corporate bond yields, profit margins and household liquidity cause fluctuations in q. Sustained misevaluations of the stock market require continuing changes in at least one of these three variables. Changes in these variables, which depend partly on endogenous political decisions, cannot be predicted, but past changes in q can be explained by their past fluctuations. The current prolonged excessive level of q has been driven by a rise in household liquidity, in response to the current secular liquidity trap. A similar experience in the 1930s ended in 1937 with the second worst recession in US history. Changes in corporate bond yields explain 7 of the past 10 major bull and bear phases of the stock market. One of these three exceptions is the current bull market, which depends on the rise in household liquidity.

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Predicting Probability of Soft-Landing, Stagflation and Monetary Policy Pivots

The study introduces a new framework to predict the probability of stagflation, soft-landing, and recession. It identifies 13 episodes each of stagflation and soft-landings in the U.S. economy post-1950, and notes 11 recessions as suggested by the NBER. An ordered probit framework is used to generate one-year-out probabilities for stagflation, recession, and soft-landing, with accurate predictions in the post-1980 period. A new method identifies 26 episodes of monetary policy pivots post-1990, and a probit model predicts the six-month-out probability of such pivots. The study presents a framework to predict the fed funds rate up to four FOMC meetings out, comparing its accuracy with FOMC and Blue-Chip forecasts.

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The Impact of Brexit on International Trade and Investment

The study examines the historical economic trends of Great Britain, particularly the impact of the two world wars and the changes in trade dynamics before and after joining the European Economic Partnership. Following the Brexit referendum (2016–2019), trade between the UK and the EU increased from £570 billion to £678 billion. The Agreement on Trade and Cooperation led to new trade barriers but also increased exports of certain goods by 10-30%. There has been a notable shift from goods to services in exports to EU countries like France, Germany, and the Netherlands. In 2023, service exports grew significantly, while goods exports saw minimal growth or decline. The investment market experienced a significant drop in capital investments from 2017-2020, followed by a recovery. Business investment growth returned to pre-Brexit levels by 2022-2023, despite initial damage to investment confidence.

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Global Examination of Corporate Taxation and Economic Activity

In virtually every country of the world, taxation is a major issue. Taxes of course are essential for governments to operate. Yet, if excessive, taxation can be onerous for taxpayers to accumulate the funds for payment. This study provides a full-scale global examination of the relationship of corporate income tax and economic activity, as measured by GDP per capita. In addition, the study examines the relationship of corporate income tax to public debt as a percentage of GDP. Findings indicate that lower corporate income tax rates are associated with significantly higher real GDP growth. In addition, lower corporate income tax rates are associated with lower, but not significantly lower public debt as a percentage of GDP.

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