Reassessing Global GDP Data Accuracy in the Digital Era
GDP’s reliability as a measure of economic performance has been increasingly undermined by rapid digitalisation of production and consumption between 2010 and 2024, particularly through the under-capture of intangible assets and cross-border digital value flows. Using secondary data from the IMF, OECD, and World Bank alongside simulated datasets, the study identifies structural biases in traditional national accounting frameworks and substantial cross-country differences in the extent of digital undercounting. A mixed-methods approach combining statistical trend analysis with qualitative interpretation quantifies the scale of this under-representation and highlights the resulting distortions in official GDP figures.
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The Marginal Efficiency of LabourThe article introduces the Marginal Efficiency of Labour (MEL), an expectations-based metric adapted from Keynes’s Marginal Efficiency of Capital. MEL is the expected internal rate of return on investment in labour, treating labour as an intertemporal asset whose value depends on firms’ forward-looking expectations. MEL incorporates demand-side uncertainty through an expected realisability factor that captures anticipated future sales constraints, making firms’ hiring decisions endogenous to expected revenue prospects rather than determined solely by current wages or productivity. To make the concept operational, the article derives a Tobin-style q-ratio for labour, a forward-looking measure that compares the expected profitability of hiring additional workers to the cost of labour, parallel to the q-theory used for physical capital investment. Unlike standard classical labour demand theory, MEL can explain persistent underemployment equilibria even when real wages are fully flexible; it also provides a testable empirical framework and a structural foundation for modelling hiring behaviour in modern Keynesian macroeconomics.
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Mr. Trump and the Economics TextbooksMr. Trump began his second term as President of the USA in January 2025 As he had during the presidential campaign, he stated his main economic objectives, with a key one being to reduce the size of the US current account balance of payments deficit. He implemented or stated his preference for the design of a range of economic policies including fiscal policy, monetary policy and trade policy. Other policies related to the value of the dollar and the supply side of the US economy. Mr. Trump’s policy approach frequently contradicts that found in textbooks of economic principles. This article investigates the differences and examines their consequences. The article also considers why it is that Mr. Trump’s approach to economic policy differs from that found in the textbooks.
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Do Countries Always Remain in the State of Resource Curse or Resource Blessing?This paper investigates the linkage between natural resources and economic growth, in light of the Resource Curse-Resource Blessing debate, by considering financial development and trade openness as additional determinants for G20 nations. As a novelty, the study uses Autoregressive Distributive Lag Model on a quadratic specification to test whether countries remain in state of resource curse (resource blessing) or make a transition to resource blessing (resource curse) state. The empirical results reveal that countries, except Brazil and Saudi Arabia, shift from resource blessed states to resource curse states. Indonesia monotonically experiences resource curse. Financial development and trade openness also contribute positively to economic growth.
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Direct and Spatial Spillover Effects of Interprovincial Migration on Sustainable Economic Growth in TürkiyeInternal migration has a negative direct effect on economic growth in Turkish provinces over 2008–2020, but produces positive spillovers to neighbouring regions, resulting in an overall insignificant total impact. Technological capacity influences regional growth only locally with no significant spatial spillovers, while human capital shows opposing direct and spillover effects that partially offset each other. Public investment stands out as a major driver of growth, generating strong positive direct effects as well as substantial aggregate impacts across regions. The analysis, based on a Spatial Durbin Model within an augmented Solow–Swan framework, confirms strong spatial dependence in growth processes and highlights the importance of spatially targeted regional development policies.
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Drivers of Digital Payment Growth in Emerging EconomiesThe paper examines the key drivers behind the rapid growth of digital payments in the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), identifying technological, economic, regulatory, and social factors as the main motivators for widespread adoption. Drawing on secondary sources—including government reports, financial databases, fintech industry analyses, case studies, and transactional data from mobile wallets, online banking, and other financial technologies—the study traces the evolution and increasing use of digital payment systems across these emerging markets. Findings highlight the critical roles played by government policies promoting financial inclusion, high mobile phone penetration, technological advancements, and infrastructure development in accelerating the shift toward digital payments in BRICS nations. The paper offers policy recommendations for BRICS governments to implement targeted changes that further boost digital payment adoption, aiming to support sustainable economic growth and enhance overall financial inclusivity.
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