Savings for the Poor
This paper reviews the relevance of formal financial services – in particular, savings – to poor people, the economic factors that have hindered the mass-scale delivery of such services in developing countries, and the technology-based opportunities that exist today to make massive gains in financial inclusion. It also highlights the benefits to government from universal financial access, as well as the key policy enablers that would need to be put in place to allow the necessary innovation and investments to take place.
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A Rising Consumer ClassIndia has had two stages of growth, both related to consumption since 1947. The first was based on developing economic self sufficiency; the second on rising disposable income. It is now entering its third period of consumption growth which sees it entering the world stage as one of the largest consumers in the world. This paper explains the factors that are driving this dramatic shift from the emerging middle classes to the patterns of consumption and investment in India today.
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Trade and Growth in the Post-Crisis WorldCountries that have most successfully used trade as part of a high growth strategy tend to exhibit a distinct trading pattern that maximises learning. The evidence points to three main strategies: first, trading itself matters, as firms learn from a larger market; second, with whom you trade matters, as richer and more technologically advanced trading partners offer more scope for learning; and, third, what products you trade matters, as more sophisticated tradables are linked to more intensive learning and greater discovery of new economic opportunities. The recent global crisis may create forces that could accentuate the need for learning, as well as opportunities for it. Trade-induced learning of a more South–South flavour is likely to prove critical for future success.
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The Unfolding Sovereign Debt CrisisAfter the excessive expansion of new forms of private sector credit over two decades of disinflation, a huge pyramid of global liquidity was accumulated. That sparked a boom in asset prices (stocks, bonds and real estate) way beyond anything experienced in the growth of production, investment or consumption. Eventually the bubble burst and along came the credit crunch and the ensuing Great Recession. Desperate to avoid a meltdown in global financial institutions and another Great Depression, governments have dramatically increased sovereign debt issuance to fund bank bailouts and provide fiscal stimulus to the real economy. Monetary authorities have generated huge increases in liquidity to finance this debt. So, instead of the private sector deleveraging, there has been a massive increase in public sector leverage heaped on top of existing private sector debt. Soon central banks will have to withdraw this liquidity largesse or face a major acceleration in global inflation and another credit bubble. This poses a new stage in New Monetarism as sovereign debt competes with the private sector for available global savings.
At best, the global cost of capital is going to rise sharply, pushing economic growth of the major countries below trend for a decade ahead. At worst, there is a serious risk of a succession of sovereign debt defaults that could plunge the world back into depression. Sovereign debt is being discredited. There is a way out, but governments need to take painful, but necessary, actions.
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The Euro CrisisThe crisis in Greece and other mainly southern Eurozone countries has been discussed primarily as a fiscal issue. Current account deficits of the same countries have received less attention in spite of the relatedness of current account and fiscal deficits. We argue that the failure of many countries within the Eurozone to develop adequate internal adjustment mechanisms is also an important factor behind the crisis. After reviewing the major perspectives that have been offered on the crisis, we present data that support our argument by demonstrating the lack of price and cost convergence in the Eurozone since 1999. Ironically, it seems that the surplus countries have carried out more of the adjustment pointed to by the endogenous optimum currency area (OCA) theory than the deficit countries. We recommend that the responsibility of a ‘European Debt Surveillance Authority’ should include surveillance of intra-euro payment flows, imbalances and adjustment in labour and goods markets, and setting benchmarks for the Eurozone guarantees of sovereign debt based on ability to adjust internally. Thereby, a potential moral hazard problem of an implicit Eurozone guarantee of countries’ sovereign debt could be avoided.
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Financial Crises and Social SpendingFinancial crises in developing and transition countries have often proven disruptive to policies and programmes due to procyclical trends in government spending growth. Given the importance and significant proportion of public budgets devoted to education and health, cuts in government expenditures during recessions potentially place social programmes at risk. This paper analyses the experiences from 1995–2007 for 131 countries, projects fiscal social spending to 2013, and examines specific issues around fiscal social spending in the current crisis, including donor responses and government and household coping mechanisms.
Growth rate trends in education and health spending fluctuate over time, with greater volatility in education. Despite the variation on growth rate trends, absolute levels of fiscal spending rise steadily over time, with brief flat trends over one or two years, reflecting periods of GDP growth decline. Public spending tends to be more counter-cyclical for education compared to health. While sharp declines in growth rates of fiscal social spending are projected, they are balanced by projected increases in absolute spending over the 2008–2013 period.
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Why Hasn’t the US Economic Stimulus Been More Effective?Recently questions have been raised about the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus policies, and about whether stimulus to a recessionary economy should be in the form of tax cuts or expenditure increases. This paper evaluates alternative empirical approaches to measuring the impact of fiscal policy and presents new results based on simulations of a large econometric model of the US economy.
The US economic stimulus has not been more effective because, large as it is, it has not been sufficient to offset the impact of a serious recession and because it has been phased in slowly. Multiplier simulations and other studies suggest that the recession would have been considerably more serious in the absence of the economic stimulus programme.
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The IMF and the Challenges it FacesFrom being widely seen in early 2008 as an institution in decline and irrelevant to many of the problems then facing the world economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has more recently been presented as an international financial institution that is of essential importance in the aftermath of the global financial and economic crisis of 2008/09. There has been a plethora of reforms affecting the amount of resources the IMF can lend, the design of its conditionality and its organisational structure. This article assesses the extent to which these reforms will enable the IMF to enhance its role and improve its operations. It identifies and analyses challenges currently facing the IMF and claims that the future of the IMF depends crucially on the success it exhibits in meeting these challenges.
HIV/AIDS funding appears largely protected in the current crisis, as the two largest programmes – the US PEPFAR Program, and the Global Fund for AIDS, TB and Malaria – are not expected to contract. Moreover, 38% of all GFATM funding over nine funding rounds has not yet been spent by recipient governments, leaving a significant cushion particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where almost half of all allocations remain to be spent. Donor funding historically moves procyclically in developing countries, but there have been major shifts in recent years. During the current crisis, World Bank lending expanded by 50% as governments ramped up safety nets. Regionally, only eastern Europe was hit hard. Declining spending on that region’s social programmes has forced longdelayed reforms, but there have been negative impacts on household spending, particularly in health, though education spending has been far less affected.
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It’s Time to Retire the US Military’s Retirement SystemThe author outlines a retirement system for the most expensive government organisation in the world – the US military. The plan incorporates positive aspects of both defined benefit and defined contribution plans that cost less and are more valuable to service members than the current system, which was put into place in 1947. The paper uses previous studies that reflect service members’ ‘value’ of retirement pensions and US Department of Defense net present value assumptions to prove his case and demonstrate how the DoD can save tens of billions of US dollars, while increasing the value of the plan in the eyes of those who serve.
This paper builds on previous work done in 2006, when the author wrote a paper titled ‘Is It Time to Update the Army’s Retirement System?’. However, this paper focuses more broadly on the overall military retirement system and takes into account the changes that have occurred since 2006 regarding the general debate on retirement pensions, the macroeconomic conditions that have changed drastically in four years, the political reality of future government budget cuts (such as with the military retirement system), and the fact that anything related to military compensation being a target because US military benefits (primarily health care, pay, and bonuses) have increased steadily over the years since 2001.
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José De Gregorio on Howard Davies and David Green: Banking on the Future. The Fall and Rise of Central Banking Author: , December 2010
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Luca Einaudi on Paolo Guerrieri and Domenico Lombardi (eds): L’architettura del mondo nuovo, governance economica e sistema multipolare [The Architecture of the New World, Economic Governance and Multipolar System] Author: , December 2010
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Scott A.J. MacDonald on Niall Ferguson: High Financier: The Lives and Time of Siegmund Warburg Author: , December 2010
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Paying the High Price of Active ManagementFinancial economists have long known that actively managed mutual funds underperform comparable index funds and that investment management fees are a major contributor to this underperformance. This article shows that the impact of mutual fund fees is even greater when one examines what funds actually do with investors’ money. Many actively managed mutual funds have returns that are closely correlated with comparable index funds and yet have annual fees that can be 100 times higher. Because such ‘shadow’ or ‘closet’ index funds provide minimal active management of the assets they hold, the implied annual cost of the active management can dwarf the stated cost. This article provides a simple measure of what investors are actually paying fund managers for that active management that they can compute for themselves data available for free on the Internet. A recent sample of 731 actively managed large-cap US mutual funds has an average active expense ratio of 6.44%, more than 400% greater than their average reported expense ratio of 1.20%. This article also finds that even large, seemingly low-cost, mutual funds common in retirement plans frequently have active expense ratios above 4% a year.
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Faulting Internationally Coordinated Fiscal StimulusFiscal policy has been actively deployed globally by G20 governments to counter the impact of the global financial crisis on the real sectors of their economies. This coordinated fiscal response has involved a mix of new public expenditure, including on infrastructure, tax relief and increased income transfers to favoured groups. In the end, the case for fiscal stimulus rests on the presumption that it works in theory, along lines first proposed by Keynes. Yet, Keynesian fiscal activism founded on this presumption is contestable on numerous theoretical and practical grounds. This paper addresses key concerns about the consequences of using fiscal stimulus. It proposes that discretionary fiscal measures that have increased budget deficits and public indebtedness for economies worldwide entail significant macroeconomic costs and risks, and that, as a corollary, reducing unproductive public spending can be expansionary.
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The Eurozone: What Now?The financial and economic crisis in Greece in 2009/2010 has reawakened interest in the future of the euro and the eurozone. After briefly explaining its sources, this article focuses on the longer-term issues to which the crisis gives rise. It explores the underlying weaknesses of current eurozone arrangements, and assesses whether the crisis will stimulate reforms designed to remedy them. The analysis suggests that, as with many crises, the one in the eurozone will lead to only relatively modest changes; these are unlikely to go much beyond the fairly ad hoc provision of emergency finance. Fundamental reform based on closer fiscal coordination, orderly insolvency arrangements or the establishment of a European Monetary Fund are unlikely. The break-up of the eurozone also seems unlikely. Indeed the crisis may catalyse structural reforms that in the long term increase the eurozone’s durability. The crisis also has important implications for the IMF.
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The Temptation for Protectionism and American Trade PolicyThe Great Recession of 2007–2009 originated in the United States and quickly spread throughout the economies of Canada and Europe. Soon these countries imported fewer goods produced by emerging countries and the crisis became global. International trade collapsed at a pace unseen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. As trade declined, countries increasingly faced the temptation to impose restrictions on imports so as to protect sales and jobs of domestic firms and workers. This paper examines the pressures for protectionism that have occurred during the Great Recession and its aftermath. It also examines the lessons from the escalation of protectionism during the 1930s and applies these to the current situation. Several cases of recent protectionist policies are examined to illustrate these points.
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Regionalising Infrastructure Reform in Developing CountriesThe principal conclusion of this essay is that regionalisation of infrastructure regulation (i.e. the creation of supranational regulatory authorities such as WATRA or ECTEL) is likely to yield significant benefits that go beyond exploiting economies of scale in both infrastructure industries and regulatory institutions. Regional integration of regulation, combined with regionalisation of regulated firms, assists developing countries in overcoming national limits in technical expertise, enhances national capacity to make credible commitments to stable regulatory policy, facilitates the introduction of competition into historically monopolised markets, improves the efficiency of infrastructure industries by allowing them to grow without respecting economically artificial national boundaries, and ultimately increases infrastructure investment.
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Economic Growth in VenezuelaThis paper presents an empirical analysis of Venezuela’s economic growth in
the last several decades, providing possible explanations for the country’s weak
performance relative to its peers. First, a growth accounting exercise uncovers
a long, negative trend in total factor productivity from the late 1970s through
the early 2000s. This trend was also accompanied by a declining ratio of capital
stock per worker, attributable to an earlier period of misguided policies that
favoured excessive accumulation of physical capital to the detriment of human
capital and economic efficiency. Second, empirical tests suggest that Venezuela’s
economic growth has been highly and increasingly dependent on oil revenues.
Finally, econometric estimates indicate that lax fiscal policies and macroeconomic
instability have had a negative impact on growth.
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Global Financial CrisisThis article reviews the degree of progress in financial regulatory reform and proposes new areas for inclusion in the reform agenda. It assesses the changes and responses to the proposed structure in the European Union and further discusses current responses to the financial crisis and new regulatory issues that require attention in the global reforms.
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The Collapse of Global TradeA unique feature of the financial crisis is the unprecedented collapse in global world trade. The objective of this paper is to explain some of that collapse as a move towards protectionism triggered not by nationalistic interests but by ‘competing’ objectives among trading partners from the Mundell-Fleming Trilemma. Even with the best of intentions, efforts towards internal rebalancing necessarily imply harming your trading partner unintentionally if they should be using conflicting policy objectives of the Trilemma. National interests are at odds between two such countries, and their policy prescriptions counteract and paralyse rebalancing and coordination efforts between nations. Policymakers may be forced into protectionist stances in an effort to counteract the internal rebalancing efforts of their neighbours.
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The Work of Angus MaddisonThe late Angus Maddison (1927-2010) made an outstanding contribution to economics and economic history. Following a career as a senior economist in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) he worked on a monumental statistical analysis of the historical growth in the world economy over 2000 years including China. His statistical methods create an implicit criticism of the projections on economic growth and its influence on climate change. He has forced a rethink of theories of economic growth.
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Building on Angus Maddison’s WorkAngus Maddison died last April. As can be seen on his website, he left an impressive legacy of books, articles and tables of key figures. For many, his single most notable and distinctive contribution is the set of tables entitled Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1–2008 AD. This comprehensive and widely used database is uniquely rich, accessible and convenient to use: no other source in the world compares with it. This article argues the case for continuing and building on Maddison’s work through a wide-ranging cooperative scholarly programme. Ideally, such a programme would embody two related features. First, it would cover both the historical dimension and continuing developments in the world economy: the Maddison series would remain topical, as well as an ongoing contribution to quantitative economic history. Second, the programme would involve not only non-official experts, in universities and research institutes, but also national and international statistical agencies. Two immediate tasks are (1) extending the Maddison series to 2009 and (in due course) later years, and (2) inquiring into the differences that have emerged between some of Maddison’s estimates, in particular for China, and the counterpart figures put out by the leading international agencies.
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Özlem Öz on World Development Report 2009: Reshaping Economic Geography Author: , September 2010
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Keith Boyfield on Paul Collier: The Plundered Planet Author: , September 2010
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Brian Sturgess on Steven D. Levitt & Stephen J. Dubner: Superfreakonomics Author: , September 2010
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Debt and DeleveragingIn this article, McKinsey Global Institute researchers assess the increases in debt and leverage in ten mature economies and four emerging economies – breaking down that data by each country’s financial, household, non-financial business and government sectors. The authors then analyse the sustainability of current levels of leverage in those sectors and construct a ‘heat map of deleveraging’. The map shows which sectors in which economies are most likely to deleverage. Third, the authors analyse 45 episodes of deleveraging since 1930, focusing on the 32 episodes that occurred after a financial crisis. From these episodes, the authors draw insights into the macroeconomic channels through which a country can deleverage. Finally, they discuss the policy and business implications of the findings.
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Clearing the FogOfficial statistical agencies produce a number of data series that are more timely and of higher frequency than the published estimates of GDP growth. There are also numerous private-sector measures and surveys that provide a running commentary on economic developments. In this article we assess the extent to which the major economic indicators in the UK, US and euro area can be used to reduce uncertainty about the prevailing pace of economic growth. We find that, whatever timely indicators are used, uncertainty about GDP growth in the current quarter and in the recent past remains high, but that the most consistent stand-alone indicator of contemporaneous activity is industrial production. However, the low share of industry in the economic output of ‘industrialised’ economies means that sole reliance on IP as an indicator in predominantly services-based economies is unsatisfactory. We are, therefore, drawn towards the conclusion that more timely indicators of services activity – both in the form of official data and business surveys – would be helpful.
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Greece and the StatePervasive state intervention in Greece has mired the economy with large-scale inefficiencies and an uneven playing field, protecting insiders and rent-seekers to the detriment of its underlying growth potential, with the political class at the same time failing miserably to address the aspirations of the people. Fiscal consolidation and structural reform, currently pursued under the EU–IMF stabilisation programme, if vigorously implemented, are expected to strengthen the Greek economy and to contribute towards the withering away of the Greek state in its present form. The Greeks are resourceful people and will not capitulate in the face of a daunting adjustment, which may prove easier than generally expected if structural weaknesses are adequately and swiftly addressed. Greece’s future lies with rebalancing the economy towards net exports, with tourism and real estate being the primary development motors.
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Greek Economic Statistics: A Decade of DeceitThis paper looks at the recent problems in official Greek economic data on public finances, whose reliability has been impaired by inappropriate accounting methods, the application of poor statistical methods and deliberate misreporting. Data on deficits and debt have been misleading from before Greece’s eurozone entry, but despite a regular supply of public information about the problems, the rating agencies did not respond by downgrading Greek public debt until it was too late. These agencies reacted to, rather than leading, market tends that were already under way. The issue casts doubt on the fitness for purpose of the European Statistical System where the powers of Eurostat, the statistics arm of the European Commission have been inadequate to effectively monitor the fiscal status of eurozone countries. These powers, at present limited by the principle of subsidiarity to administering a Code of Practice, must be strengthened closer to approximating a power of audit.
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The Economic Crisis and the CommonwealthThis paper reviews the nature of the economic crisis and discusses its impact on the Commonwealth. Further, it offers an analysis and suggestions on how Commonwealth nations can move forward to both tackle the impact of the crisis and prepare for the post-crisis period, through five key policy principles that can serve as a guide in the formulation and implementation of appropriate policies, strategies and programmes.
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The International Financial ArchitectureThe global financial crisis requires a global solution. A deep-seated overhaul of the international financial system is needed, but could be frustrated by political wrangling, particularly in the United States, but also in the European Union. Moreover, international coordination is complicated; without it there will be no level playing field and the resulting distortions could have serious consequences. The international monetary system (IMS) has come out of the crisis relatively unscathed, but is vulnerable to large-scale attacks on major currencies. Global imbalances have been temporarily reduced, but continue to pose a challenge in coming years. In order to strengthen the IMS and to accommodate the desire for diversification of official reserves, the proposal for an SDR Substitution Account (SA) that would allow central banks to convert excess dollar holdings into SDRs should be revived and streamlined. Eliminating the present dollar overhang and avoiding its recurrence in the future would benefit all major players in the world economy. The problem of exchange rate risk run by an IMF-administered SA could be eased by ring-fencing part of the IMF’s gold for that purpose. Ultimately, world reserves could consist of roughly one-third in dollars, euros and SDRs.
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A Tale of Two CrisesThe paper argues that many erroneous conclusions derived from modelling are due to mistakes in logic rather than scientific methodology. The widely accepted models predicting the catastrophic consequences of carbon emissions, and suggesting how cuts by the developed world can prevent them, all ignore population growth and distribution, and such data are not used as independent variables in the global warming models. This casts doubt on the probability of the models, and even more on the suggested solutions, as an astonishingly high degree of accuracy in highly complex forecasts over a period of almost a century would be required, without which the extremely costly ‘solutions’ would be either unnecessary or insufficient. Over a 30-year period, forecasts of population are likely to be much more accurate than those for climate. Within such a period, population in the world’s poorest countries will almost double, leading to virtually all the disasters that are predicted to arise from global warming some decades later. Since many measures taken to avoid putative global warming are likely to exacerbate the more rapidly approaching dangers of population growth, it would appear logical to give more consideration to assisting the poorer countries rather than impoverishing the rich.
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Green Stimulus, Green Recovery and Global ImbalancesThis paper assesses the extent to which G20 green stimulus initiatives enacted during the 2008–9 recession have instigated a global ‘green recovery’, and how further green recovery policy initiatives by the G20 relate to concerns about chronic fiscal deficits and global imbalances. Implementing further green measures will require G20 economies to commit to increased public investments, new pricing policies, improving regulations, more aid disbursements and other policy changes. Although there may be concern that these additional initiatives could worsen the chronic fiscal deficits and structural imbalances, if properly enacted, such a green economic recovery strategy should help alleviate, rather than worsen, unstably large fiscal deficits, long-term real interest rate rises and inflation, and global imbalances.
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Vietnam: From Transitional State to Asian Tiger?Putting aside the legacy of its unique history, Vietnam has achieved an excellent growth record. But it is still far behind the leading East Asian economies. We consider the Vietnamese growth strategy in light of the controversies about ‘accumulation vs assimilation’ and ‘non-intervention vs governing the market’. We discuss the changes that are occurring as a result of the actions of the still large state-owned sector, and as a result of growing private domestic and FDI-led entrepreneurship. Policy options for directing economic development are today influenced by Vietnam’s participation in AFTA and WTO. Trade links with China, Japan and the US also influence the direction of Vietnamese development.
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To the editors of World Economics Author: Tim Congdon, June 2010
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Keith Boyfield on Dambisa Moyo: Dead Aid Author: Keith Boyfield, June 2010
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John Williamson on Carol Graham: Happiness Around the World Author: John Williamson, June 2010
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George Soros’ Reflexivity and the Global Financial Crisis Author: Thomas D. Willett, June 2010
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Narrow BankingThe credit crunch of 2007–8 was the direct and indirect result of losses incurred by major financial services companies in speculative trading in wholesale financial markets. The largest source of systemic risk was within individual financial institutions themselves. The capital requirements regime imposed by the Basel agreements both contributed to the problem and magnified the damage inflicted on the real economy after the problem emerged. The paper argues that regulatory reform should emphasise systemic resilience and robustness, not more detailed behaviour prescription. It favours functional separation of financial services architecture, with particular emphasis on narrow banking – tight restriction of the scope and activities of deposit-taking institutions.
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Monetary Policy at the Zero BoundThe main conclusion of the paper is that – even if bank lending to the private sector is falling (and destroying money balances) at a zero short-term interest rate – the monetary authorities can always increase the quantity of money (broadly defined to include all bank deposits) without limit by means of debt market operations. Such operations are to be distinguished from more conventional money market operations. Assuming – in line with standard theory – that equilibrium nominal national income increases by the same percentage as the quantity of money, debt market operations are available at all times to pre-empt a downward debt-deflationary spiral.
The paper differentiates debt market operations from money market operations, and a broad liquidity trap (in which increases in the quantity of money, broadly defined, do not reduce the long bond yield because of the infinite elasticity of non-banks’ demand to hold money) from a narrow liquidity trap (in which increases in the monetary base do not boost the quantity of money, because banks behave as if their demand for base were infinitely elastic). Keynes analysed the broad liquidity trap in The General Theory.
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The Failures of Economics and the Emerging New EconomicsThe current economic and financial crisis has exposed several weaknesses in economics that emanate from oversimplification of reality, the role of ideology, and the failure to consider culture and governance matters. In addition, tackling poverty and inequality in economics is highly problematic and it has arguably also been a failure. Other areas, including fundamental assumptions regarding rational decision-making and the lack of a robust linkage between the micro and the macro, leave much to be desired as well. And these ‘fault lines’ have had an impact on the depth and quality of economics. This paper draws from field research and other primary sources, and engages in a critical review and analysis of the background and certain aspects of the status quo of economics, with special reference to macroeconomics, development economics, and other areas. Fresh ideas and alternative paradigms suggest an emerging new economics to address the fault lines and to grow the discipline.
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Global Imbalances, the Financial Crisis and the International Monetary SystemEven though the proximate causes of the crisis lie in previous financial excesses, the extent to which these have developed owes much to fundamental sources of vulnerability present in the global macroeconomic environment. However, imbalances and asset price misalignments went on basically unchecked, reflecting a climate of general macroeconomic optimism and the confidence in the ability of policymakers to cope with critical conditions in financial markets. The limits of the existing policy set-up, the main challenges ahead and the importance of rebalancing global demand in order to achieve a more sustainable pattern of economic growth at the world level are examined in this article. The risks of disorderly exchange rate movements and possible implications for the international monetary system are considered, and the exit from the exceptional monetary and fiscal stimulus currently in place are discussed, with the view that while supporting the recovery care should be taken not to create new sources of financial instability.
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Special Drawing RightsFrom a situation as late as 2008, when they were largely unfashionable, special drawing rights (SDR s) have become the centre of attention in discussions about a reformed international monetary system. The G20 and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have backed a significant additional allocation of SDRs, and China and the United Nations have suggested that this should be followed up with more substantial reforms that diminish the role of the dollar and enhance that of the SDR . These proposals would incorporate a substitution account that allows holders of dollars to swap them into SDR s, but they see this as only one step towards establishing an SDR -based system. This article assesses the issues involved and the contemporary political economy of such proposals, placing them in historical context. It contemplates the likely evolution of the international monetary system, and examines the extent to which the SDR is likely to come back fully into fashion.
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The Return of the 1970s?The global economic crisis, and governments’ responses to the crisis, did not precipitate a descent into 1930s-style protectionism. That is a relief. But it provides no refuge from policy measures that will slow down globalisation and growth in the next decade. ‘Creeping protectionism’ is increasing, and the crisis has reinforced trends visible before the start of the crisis. New patterns of protectionism are similar to developments in the 1970s and 1980s rather than the 1930s. Domestic ‘crisis interventions’, especially in capital and product markets, and the return of Big Government, will spill over to external policy, with more defensive trade policies as a consequence.
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Finance, Technology and Multinationals from the PeripheryThis article analyses the emergence of Latin American multinational corporations (MNCs), with a particular emphasis on the roles of finance and technology. It is established that the need to acquire foreign technology and finance has played a key role in the emergence of Latin MNCs. However, in respect to technology at least, the internationalisation process is also increasingly predicated upon the exploitation of domestically generated assets.
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The Chinese Renminbi (Yuan)This paper is a tentative endeavour to delineate the potential of the renminbi to become a global currency. It first analyses the critical economic, financial and policy attributes that are required to support a currency to gain an international role. It then examines whether China has the potential to acquire these attributes. The paper concludes by offering some provisional observations on the implications for Asia and the global economy should the renminbi evolve into a world currency in the coming decades.
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Carbon Commitments Must Translate into Real ActionThe efforts of political leaders to negotiate a global agreement to reduce carbon emissions highlights the importance of consistent action at the domestic level. To gauge the efficacy of any international agreement and subsequent reductions, a clear, consistent and comparable approach to carbon disclosure must be adopted by UK companies. This allows economic benefits, as carbon reporting is an enabler for energy efficiency and a driver for better, cleaner technology in new markets. Furthermore, the pursuit of the perfect reporting framework must not be the enemy of the good, as the urgent need to address the causes of climate change requires immediate action to drive reduction in carbon emissions by UK plc.
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Maddison and Wu: ‘Measuring China’s Economic Performance’Angus Maddison and Harry Wu (2008) claim that, in 2003, China’s GDP was 73% of that of the United States on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis. Rejecting the results of the 2005 International Comparison Program (ICP), they construct their own PPP using a 1986 GDP estimate for China (Ren & Chen 1995) which they adjust upwards, and then extrapolate to 2003 using their revised growth rates for China, which they adjust downwards. This note examines the validity of their adjustments and assumptions, and finds them to be inconsistent with recommendations both from the perspective of index number theory and recommended national accounting practices. The 2005 PPP estimates from the ICP, which Maddison and Wu reject, produce a more plausible estimate of the size of China’s economy relative to that of the US (43% in 2005).
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F. Gerard Adams on David Wessel: In Fed We Trust Author: , March 2010
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