Simon Hayes


Simon Hayes is Chief UK Economist and Director in Barclays Capital’s Global Research Division. He joined Barclays Capital in 2005 after eight years working at the Bank of England. While at the Bank, Simon performed several roles, including author of the quarterly Inflation Report. He was also responsible for briefing the Monetary Policy Committee on the near-term outlook for inflation and growth ahead of the Committee’s monthly interest rate meetings. Prior to working at the BoE, Simon was a lecturer in Economics at Newcastle University. He has a BA in Economics and a PhD from Newcastle University, and an MSc in Economics from Warwick University.

Papers Published in World Economics:

Clearing the Fog

Official statistical agencies produce a number of data series that are more timely and of higher frequency than the published estimates of GDP growth. There are also numerous private-sector measures and surveys that provide a running commentary on economic developments. In this article we assess the extent to which the major economic indicators in the UK, US and euro area can be used to reduce uncertainty about the prevailing pace of economic growth. We find that, whatever timely indicators are used, uncertainty about GDP growth in the current quarter and in the recent past remains high, but that the most consistent stand-alone indicator of contemporaneous activity is industrial production. However, the low share of industry in the economic output of ‘industrialised’ economies means that sole reliance on IP as an indicator in predominantly services-based economies is unsatisfactory. We are, therefore, drawn towards the conclusion that more timely indicators of services activity – both in the form of official data and business surveys – would be helpful.

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