Monetary Policy Tightening and Economic Landing
Will the landing be hard or soft?
• Author(s): Azhar Iqbal
• Published: December 2022
• Pages in paper: 30
Abstract
This article presents a new approach for estimating the optimal nominal interest rate and labels it the appropriate-FFR. The analysis suggests that the US Federal Reserve is behind the curve in the present cycle and also predicts a hard landing using both the FOMC and Blue Chip consensus forecasts. Given the historical accuracy of our method, we caution decision makers to consider the possibility of a hard landing in the near future.
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