Nicole Cervi

Nicole CerviNicole Cervi is an economist with Wells Fargo’s Corporate and Investment Bank. Based in Charlotte, N.C., Nicole covers the U.S. macro economy and assists with quantitative analysis. She also contributes to the group’s Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary and various special reports. Nicole joined the group in 2020. She graduated from the Kenan-Flagler Business School at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill with a B.S. in business administration.

Papers Published in World Economics:

Characterizing Stagflation into Mild, Moderate and Severe Episodes

The study proposes a new framework to classify stagflation into mild, moderate, or severe episodes based on the magnitude and duration of high inflation and low-output growth. It uses the CPI and PCE deflators as inflation measures, real GDP as output growth measure, and a time-varying benchmark for growth and inflation to account for the changing nature of the US economy. The article identifies 13 episodes of stagflation from 1947 to Q1-2024, with five mild, four moderate, and four severe cases. The current episode (Q2–2021 to Q1-2024) is severe and the second-longest in history. The findings use Bloomberg’s consensus projections to estimate the end of the current stagflation episode by Q1–2024, and discuss the policy implications and lessons from past episodes.

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