Samuel Fankhauser

Samuel Fankhauser is a Principal Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, where he is working on issues related to energy, the environment, and the investment climate in transition countries. His research interests include the economics of climate change, and he served as a Lead Author in the Second and Third Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Papers Published in World Economics:

How Much Damage Will Climate Change Do?

Two reasons to be concerned about climate change are its unjust distributional impact and its negative aggregate effect on economic growth and welfare. Although our knowledge of the impact of climate change is incomplete and uncertain, economic valuation is difficult and controversial, and the effect of other developments on the impacts of climate change is largely speculative, the authors find that poorer countries and people are more vulnerable than are richer countries and people. A modest global warming is likely to have a net negative effect on poor countries in hot climates, but may have a net positive effect on rich countries in temperate climates. If one counts dollars, the world aggregate may be positive. If one counts people, the world aggregate is probably negative. Negative impacts would become more negative, and positive impacts would turn negative for more substantial warming. The marginal costs of carbon dioxide emissions are uncertain and sensitive to assumptions that partially reflect ethical positions, but are unlikely to be larger than $50 per tonne carbon.

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