Ross Guest


Ross GuestRoss Guest is Professor of Economics in the Griffith Business School at Griffith University, and an adjunct professor at the Australia and New Zealand School of Government. Prof Guest holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Melbourne. His primary field of research is population economics, on which he has published many articles in, for example, the Journal of Macroeconomics, the Economic Record, the Journal of Population Economics, and Oxford Economic Papers. He has received four Australian Research Council grants for his work on population economics, which has informed public policy through consultancies (e.g. New Zealand Treasury and Queensland Treasury) and citations in Productivity Commission reports.

Papers Published in World Economics:

Evaluating Demographic Paths in the Long Run
Author: Ross Guest

This article is motivated by potential changes to fertility and migration patterns that may result from major global economic and/or health crises such as the COVID-19 global pandemic. The focus is on the long-term effects of changes to fertility and migration on both discounted national output per capita and intergenerational income distribution. Simulations are based on United Nations population projections, applied to 15 countries. Lower fertility and lower immigration are generally positive for discounted output per capita and raise the lifetime incomes of smaller cohorts. While lower immigration also raises the lifetime incomes of smaller cohorts, it has a lower impact on discounted output per capita.

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