Papers Published in World Economics:
Five Centuries of Energy Prices
Concerns about rising energy prices tend to occur in times of economic
expansion, to disappear in times of recession. A recurring fear is that, in the long
run, real energy prices will trend upwards. This paper presents evidence from
five hundred years of prices of energy sources for the United Kingdom. Over this
time period, there is little support for any general trend of rising fuel prices—and
some evidence of significant declines. Using this information on prices and
consumer expenditure to weight the series, an ‘average price of energy’ series has
been created. Reflecting the substitution away from more scarce fuels (driving
prices down) and towards more valuable ones (driving prices up), over more than
five hundred years—and albeit with significant long-lived fluctuations—there
seems little evidence of a rising long-run trend in the real price of ‘energy’.
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