Mthuli Ncube

Mthuli NcubeMthuli Ncube is the Chief Economist and Vice President of the African Development Bank. He is a former Dean of the Faculty of Commerce Law and Management; Dean and Professor of Finance at Wits Business School, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa; and Lecturer in Finance at the London School of Economics, UK. He is the author of Mathematical Finance, Financial Systems and Monetary Policy in Africa, among other publications. He holds a PhD in Mathematical Finance from Cambridge University, UK.

Papers Published in World Economics:

Can Intra-Regional Trade Act as a Global Shock Absorber in Africa?

The global financial crisis and the subsequent uneven recovery have underscored the need for Africa’s resilience to output and other shocks originated in the rest of the world. A comparison of two regional economic communities – the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) – suggests that deeper intra-regional, and in particular intra-industry, trade ties have contributed to the EAC’s resilience to external output shocks. More broadly, intra-regional and intra-African trade with fast-growing economies, together with geographically diversified trade links, can strengthen the capacity of African countries to absorb global output shocks. Besides helping shield countries from external shocks, intra-regional trade also supports economic diversification and participation in regional value chains.

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Remittances and their Macroeconomic Impact

This paper examines the macroeconomic trends, drivers and the impact of remittances in Africa. First, it documents the increasing share of remittances relative to other foreign capital flows to Africa, the distribution of remittance inflows across countries, and some key properties. This is followed by an analysis of the macroeconomic drivers of remittances in recipient countries, such as the level of income, inflation and nominal exchange rate depreciation. Specifically, remittances are positively impacted by higher income, but deterred by an unstable macroeconomic environment, pointing to the investment motive in remitting to Africa. The paper also examines the role of remittances in funding Africa’s external balances. Finally, drawing on the case of Egypt, the paper shows the positive impact that rising remittances can have on public debt sustainability.

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