Magda Kandil

Magda Kandil is a Senior Economist with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where she has worked since 1999. In July 2006 she joined the Western Hemisphere Department in her present position, working on the policy agenda and relevant operational issues in the Caribbean. Her publications include 91 articles (as author or co-author) in international professional journals, 8 chapters in books, 7 book reviews, 11 IMF working papers and numerous other working papers. She is a Research Fellow of the Economic Research Forum for the Arab countries, Iran and Turkey (ERF). Her research in macroeconomics cuts across all sectors of the economy. Since joining the IMF, she has accelerated her research productivity and reorientated her focus to address policy issues of relevance to the IMF.

Papers Published in World Economics:

Growth in Oil- and Non-Oil-Producing Countries
Author: Magda Kandil

Using data for a sample of oil- and non-oil-producing countries this article studies determinants of growth to assess the relative importance of domestic policies and external spillovers. For net oil exporters, a higher price of oil helps increase resources for spending and available liquidity to support real growth. For net oil importers it increases the cost of imports and government spending on fuel subsidies with a negative effect on real growth. The mechanism transmitting the oil price shock is more evident in developing countries than in advanced oil-producing countries, attesting to less diversified economies in the first group. Across the samples of countries under investigation, advanced and developing oil- and non-oil-producing countries, domestic policies have considerable ability to counter the spillover effects of external shocks.

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Are MENA Countries Reaping the Benefits of Inflows?

Using data for a sample of developing countries, we analyse the effects of external flows, namely migrants’ remittances and FDI flows, on real output growth, price inflation and components of aggregate demand. The historical evidence indicates unstable patterns of FDI inflows to a sample of nine MENA countries. In contrast, remittances flows appear to be more stable over time in recipient countries. Except for Jordan, real GDP growth does not vary significantly with FDI inflows. Tunisia provides the only significant evidence of an increase in price inflation in response to FDI, which is coupled with a significant increase in private investment. FDI flows stimulate a significant increase in imports in Egypt. Remittances inflows appear, in general, a more important determinant of macroeconomic performance. Remittances inflows stimulate real output growth in Jordan, and decrease price inflation in Egypt and Tunisia. The increase in growth in Jordan is coupled with an increase in private consumption, private investment, real exports and imports with respect to remittances inflows. Moreover remittances increase export growth in Tunisia.

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