This article examines the prospects for and challenges of development resilience within the methodological framework of the state fragility index in Nigeria. By using a qualitative and dialectical approach we find, contrary to initial expectation, that the economy showed traces of high vulnerability to crisis with a fragility index value of 94.4 in 2006, rising steadily to 100.2 in 2010 and 103.5 in 2016 on a scale of 0–120, despite overcoming various spates of economic crisis. Nigerian’s average fragility index between 2006 to 2021 ranked 15th out of 178 countries, only better than war torn Sudan, Iraq, Somalia and so on. In fact, the country performance was worse-off than Sri Lanka, a country currently faced with social upheavals. The success story of surmounting different phases of economic shock gauged using output growth in the two decades from 1999 to 2021 have not translated to betterment in the life of the populace. The article notes with dismay the increased level of unemployment and the diminutive standard of living and vulnerability during the economic crisis, demonstrating a clear mismatch between policy priority and development resilience.

Nigeria has witnessed a substantial rise in sub-national debt at the state level in an economy characterised by infrastructural decay and macro-economic imbalance. The mismanagement of sub-national debt in Nigeria has culminated in the inability of most states to meet their daily obligations. Secondary data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Debt Management Office shows that external indebtedness of the states grew from US$2 billion to US$3.4 billion between 2010 and 2015, a rise of 68.4%. Sub-national debt has been identified as a conduit for embezzlement. A more sustainable approach to infrastructure financing should be the adoption of a public-private partnership (PPP) approach.