Khursheed Ahmad Butt


Khursheed Ahmad ButtKhursheed Ahmad Butt is a senior research fellow at the department Of commerce, University of Kashmir working of stock market and macroeconomic variables. He has qualified both state eligibility test and national eligibility test. His main areas of interest include Finance and banking, capital markets and accounting.

Papers Published in World Economics:

Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Stock Market Returns in Emerging Asian Economies

Exchange rates are a prominent macroeconomic variable that exposes emerging stock markets to international economic risks. This study attempts to understand and explain stock market returns and exchange rate dynamics in the progressive emerging market group of Asia. The study applies the ARDL modelling technique and Granger causality test to monthly time-series data. It finds that import-dominated countries (India, Indonesia and Turkey) have positive exchange rate coefficients while for export-dominated countries (China), an increase in real effective exchange rate affects stock returns negatively. Causality analysis reveals informational inefficiency among the sample countries except for Indonesia, because exchange rate movements lead stock prices. The study concludes that the exchange rate is highly significant for investors (global and domestic) and policymakers in the Asian economies reviewed, who focus on it to better diversify their portfolios.

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Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns

The present study is an attempt to understand the interactions between prominent macroeconomic variables and stock market returns among seven emerging economies by using a novel econometric technique, the ARDL model. The study found macroeconomic variables do have significant impact on stock market returns although varying in magnitude and direction across sample countries. Significant external impact of oil prices and exchange rates is visible on stock market returns of emerging economies. Stock returns of the emerging economies are informationally inefficient because understanding the trends in macroeconomic variables can be used to beat the market.

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