Igors Kasjanovs

Igors KasjanovsIgors Kasjanovs is a senior economist at the Central Bank of Latvia. His core responsibilities are macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of the real sector, development of different forecasting tools (models) and writing one-off researches. Before his current position he was the Head of the Macroeconomic division at the Ministry of Finance of Latvia. His core responsibilities included development of medium term macroeconomic forecasts for budget purposes and assistance in the development of tax revenue projections. During the crisis years he worked in close cooperation with the technical staff of IMF and EC on the issues regarding macroeconomic projections and the issues regarding stabilization of the economy of Latvia.

Papers Published in World Economics:

Is part of the Latvian economy already in the middle-income trap?

There are fears that the observed moderation of growth rates in Latvia suggest it may soon be stuck in a Middle Income Trap. No uniform understanding has been reached as to what a Middle Income Trap is and what signs testify to its existence. In order to avoid the danger of this trap structural reforms will be necessary which together with higher quality investment could raise Total Factor Productivity.

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The Crisis in Latvia

Between 2008 and 2010 Latvia – a small country on the Baltic Sea coast and a member of the European Union (EU) – lost a huge 21.7% of its real gross domestic product (GDP). It is one of the largest recent GDP falls not only in the history of the EU, but also globally. But the crisis described in this article is not the classical ‘boom and bust’ cycle-type crisis: Latvia had to face cyclical, structural, financial and global problems simultaneously. This article briefly describes the anatomy of the crisis in Latvia.

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