Elio Lancieri
Elio Lancieri (stat.int@alice.it) took his first degree, in International Economics, at Rome University and then spent a year at St. John’s College, Oxford attending the weekly seminars by Sir Roy Harrod. In 1972 he received an M.Sc. Econ. from the London School of Economics, where he studied with Hla Myint, Harry G. Johnson and A. K. Sen. After many years in the FAO, Commodities and Trade Division-where he mostly worked on export/import problems of LDCs-he joined the Research Department of Banca Nazionale Del Lavoro in Rome, where he was in charge, among other things, of a Country Risk Analysis Model he set up and introduced in the bank. In recent years, topics he has dealt with include the fluctuations of the dollar, the construction of the euro system, and the preparation of 10, 20, 50-year world economic forecasts. Since leaving BNL in 2003, he continues an independent research activity on international economic issues.
Papers Published in World Economics:
International Comparisons of GDP
The recent publication by the World Bank of PPP-GDP estimates for 2005, referred to 146 countries, seems a good occasion to reopen the long-standing debate on the use of Purchasing Power Parities. While theoretical speculations on the subject have continued, no estimates were supplied for more than a decade. The author’s alternative method for GDP estimation is based on inflationadjusted long-term exchange rates, where real GDP estimates are obtained through simultaneous equations. He describes the method in the light of his experience and compares its results for 100 countries with both ICP estimates and GDPs at exchange rates.
Read Full Paper >