Daniel Shaviro
Daniel Shaviro is Professor of Law
at New York University Law School.
His research has mainly emphasized
tax policy, government transfers,
budgetary measures, social insurance,
and entitlements reform. Recent
books that he has published include
Do Deficits Matter? (1997), When Rules
Change: An Economic and Political
Analysis of Transition Relief and
Retroactivity (2000), and Making Sense
of Social Security Reform (2000), all
published by the University of
Chicago Press.
Papers Published in World Economics:
The Growing US Fiscal Gap
The United States has a huge long-term fiscal gap, perhaps with a present value
as great as $74 trillion. The US may thus be unable to continue meeting its
current spending commitments without eventually enacting huge tax increases.
The tax cut enacted in 2001 may have increased the fiscal gap by about $13 trillion,
but the main cause of the gap is increasing life expectancy, which raises the cost
of Social Security and Medicare. While the fiscal gap can in theory be eliminated
at the stroke of a pen by simply changing stated policy, in practice this could lead
to serious disruption of people’s expectations. In addition, the fiscal gap may
impair future generations’ opportunity to take full advantage of technological
advances (such as in treating cancer) that have the potential to make their lives
significantly better than ours.
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