Alfredo Coutiño


Alfredo CoutiñoAlfredo Coutiño is an economist with a long professional experience in the private and public sectors. At present, he is Director for Latin America at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania, where he is the Chief Economist in charge of the region’s economic analysis and forecast since January 2005. From 2002 to 2004, he was the Director of the Center for Economic Forecasting of Mexico (CKF), an economic consulting firm based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Dr. Coutiño is an economist trained at the Center for Econometric Research on Mexico of the Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, where he was the Director of Macroeconomic Analysis from 2000 to 2002. Previously, from 1992 to 1996, he was the Director of Macroeconometric Models at Wharton Econometrics (WEFA). His experience as an economist includes more than 30 years working on macroeconomic analysis and policy, economic consulting, econometric modeling and forecasting for Latin America and Emerging Markets. He developed the first High-Frequency Forecasting Model for the Mexican Economy (Current Quarter Model) under the supervision of Nobel Laureate in Economics Lawrence R. Klein from the University of Pennsylvania. He completed the Ph.D. program in economics at Temple University in Philadelphia, and obtained the Ph.D. degree from the University of Madrid. He has been co-author with Lawrence Klein of a series of papers on modeling and policy analysis for the Mexican economy. He has published academic papers on Monetary and Fiscal Policy. Mr. Coutiño has been the national representative of Mexico in the World Macroeconometric Model-Project LINK of the United Nations since 1994. He is extensively quoted by national and international newspapers and magazines and is a contributor for radio and TV news, including WSJ, Financial Times, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forbes, AP, CNN, NBC and Radio France International. Dr. Coutiño has given conferences on Latin America and Emerging Markets at the United Nations, the American Economic Association, and in economic forums in different countries. He has also worked for the Mexican government in the areas of economic policy and analysis. He is a regular contributor to the Inter-American Dialogue.




Papers Published in World Economics:


Neutral Interest Rate: A Statistical Estimation

Monetary space is a measure of how close or far away current monetary policy is from the level of neutrality, the condition at which policy is neither restrictive nor expansive. The estimate of monetary space provides a useful metric for policymakers to calibrate monetary conditions at any time and throughout the business cycle, since it shows the degree of restriction or stimulation present in current monetary conditions. Since monetary stance depends on both the price and the quantity of money, the monetary space is more limited in countries with single mandate than in those with dual mandate. In this article we present a statistical approach to estimating the stance and space of monetary policy based on the price of money. Mexico is presented as a study case.

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