Latent Patterns: Data Analytics to Uncover Economic Data DistortionsThe study evaluates 13 economic indicators across six countries (India, Philippines, Thailand, France, UK, US) from 2000–2023, detecting anomalies, structural breaks, and outlier behaviour. It employs Benford’s Law, Grubbs’ Test, Chow Test, and DBSCAN on data from the Global Macro Database, using a contingency-based approach to validate anomalies through methodological converge...
Read Full Paper >
The Informal Economy of the BRICSThis article evaluates the impact of trade liberalisation on the informal economy in the BRICS countries, which have significant unorganised sectors and trade policy changes. The article uses panel data from 1996 to 2015 to measure informality based on the method of Kaufmann and Kaliberda, which estimates the size of the informal sector as the difference between official GDP an...
Read Full Paper >
Growth of an Economic GiantThe economic expansion of the People's Republic of China is the most rapid continuous increase by a major economy in world history. China has become an economic giant, the world’s second-largest economy based on GDP and the largest based on purchasing power parity. This study identifies major historical events across millennia relevant to China’s continual economic development....
Read Full Paper >
The Shadow Economy and Its DeterminantsThe shadow economy includes economic activities that are not recognized and unregulated by public authorities. These activities cause significant challenges for policymakers by reducing tax revenue and weakening regulatory frameworks. Understanding the factors that influence the shadow economy is crucial for developing effective policies to mitigate its adverse effects. This s...
Read Full Paper >
Assessing Economic Data QualityThe paper explores a variety of data analytics methods—such as Benford’s Law for detecting manipulation, Markov Switching Models for economic cycle analysis, time-series anomaly detection for data integrity, and volatility analysis for stability—to assess the quality of economic data. It highlights the use of advanced techniques like Bayesian inference and resampling (e.g., boo...
Read Full Paper >
Smart Governance: Analysing GDP Growth and Key Economic Indicators in PakistanThe study integrates human capital theory, Okun’s Law, and capital accumulation, using econometric tools such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling, and Error Correction Model (ECM) to analyse the unemployment-GDP growth relationship in Pakistan. GDP growth, labour force participation, and fixed capital formation are stationa...
Read Full Paper >
Evolving Power Structures in Global GovernanceThe international system has shifted from unipolarity to multipolarity, with emerging powers like China, India, and the European Union gaining influence, reducing the dominance of Western-led institutions such as the World Bank and IMF, as evidenced by economic data like GDP growth and FDI trends. The study analyses this transition using Offensive Realism, which highlights powe...
Read Full Paper >
Statistical Data Collection Challenges amid COVID-19 PandemicThe importance of reliable statistical data is even more urgent in the context of the coronavirus crisis, in terms of managing the risks for public health, restarting the world economy and addressing the long-term economic and social impact of the pandemic. Government lockdowns, social distancing and work from home restrictions, imposed to contain the spread of COVID-19, pose i...
Read Full Paper >
Unveiling the Impact of the Gig Economy on Workforce Dynamics in IndiaThe Indian economy is witnessing a paradigm shift in workforce dynamics due to fast adoption of the internet and increasing penetration of smartphones and digital platforms. The present study seeks to understand the economic contribution of gig economy from the perspective of Indian economy. It will assess the challenges posed by the gig economy for the workforce and to compreh...
Read Full Paper >
Governments Manipulate DataGovernments widely manipulate official economic and social data—but the public tends to disregard this fact. There is extensive empirical evidence that governments extensively manipulate official data. National statistical offices should be independent of their government to fight such manipulation, and alternative data producers should be supported. The public should be aware ...
Read Full Paper >
On Hyperinflation: New Evidence from Zambia, the Central African Franc Zone, and BelarusAdds four new hyperinflation episodes—Zambia (1984–86; 1988), CFA Franc Zone (1994), and Belarus (May 2011)—bringing the Hanke–Krus table to 71. Measures inflation via PPP using parallel-market exchange rates; applies Cagan’s =50%/month for =30 days with full replicability. Peak rates: Zambia ~171%/mo and ~100%/mo; CFA Zone ~101%/mo; Belarus ~52.4%/mo. In Belarus, exchange-r...
Read Full Paper >
The Role of Globalisation in Shaping Emerging EconomiesThe study examines the socio-economic impacts of globalisation on countries with medium and below-medium development, focusing on their integration into global markets, institutional quality, export structure, and spatial disparities, using a comparative analysis of macroeconomic and institutional indicators across Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Africa,...
Read Full Paper >
Can the Dollar be Replaced as the Dominant Reserve Currency?Recent changes in US trade and fiscal policies represent a threat to the global trading order and the domestic financial stability of the US economy, and ultimately the dominant reserve currency status of the dollar. This paper considers two alternatives. One is the shift to a multipolar reserve currency system involving other currencies, such as the euro and renminbi. However,...
Read Full Paper >
Global vs Local Ethics of Official StatisticsThe paper explores the philosophical underpinnings of the ethics of official statistics and provides a basic conceptual classification. It distinguishes between universal ethics, supranational codifications, and national/local ethics, and examines these distinctions through various philosophical perspectives. The paper emphasizes that ethics of official statistics can only be f...
Read Full Paper >
Measuring the Informal Economy in MoroccoThis paper, relying on the electricity consumption method, attempts to both measure the size of the informal economy in Morocco and construct a larger time series dataset for the Moroccan informal economy. We use the Kaufmann and Kaliberda (1996) model to calculate the size of the informal economy over the period 1971 to 2014. The results show that this hidden part of the econ...
Read Full Paper >
Multilateral Development Banks Driving Green Transition in Emerging MarketsThe study examines how green bonds support low-carbon growth and Sustainable Development Goals in emerging economies, using Morocco as a case study to explore strategies for advancing green finance. It applies a risk-resilience framework and strategic thematic analysis to investigate institutional dynamics shaping green bond markets, focusing on the role of multilateral develop...
Read Full Paper >
Securing Growth and Sustainability in the presence of Data GapsThis study highlights that India’s emissions reporting systems are characterised by sectoral blind spots, lacking comprehensive data at disaggregated level, which may undermine the effectiveness of climate change-related policies essential for achieving nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and net-zero goals. As ‘non-specified industries’ contribute more than 40% of emiss...
Read Full Paper >
Industrial Policy: No Longer a Dirty Word but Still MisunderstoodThe paper traces industrial policy (IP) from Alexander Hamilton’s 1791 advocacy for US manufacturing to modern examples like Japan’s MITI and South Korea’s export-driven growth, highlighting China’s rise as a global manufacturing powerhouse through extensive IP use, and noting the recent resurgence of IP in the US and Europe, as seen in Biden’s and Trump’s policies and the Drag...
Read Full Paper >
The IMF at 80The IMF has existed for 80 years. Over this period, the structure of the world economy has changed significantly. There has also been an evolution in economic thinking although not all economists agree with one another. The Bretton Woods system, of which the Fund was a key part, collapsed in the early 1970s. This raised the issue of whether the Fund was needed in the ‘modern er...
Read Full Paper >
Measuring the Non-observed Economy in VietnamThis article takes advantage of new political demand at the government’s highest level to focus on measurement of the informal economy in Vietnam from a statistical perspective. The main challenges, concepts and definitions regarding the informal economy within the framework of the non-observed economy are reviewed. A discussion of alternative methodologies for measuring the ...
Read Full Paper >
Shedding Light on the Shadow EconomyThe shadow or informal economy covers all economic activities which are hidden from official authorities for monetary, regulatory and institutional reasons. Although widely used, multiple indicator-multiple cause (MIMIC) models have been criticised, and we develop a modified model and database covering 157 countries over the years 1991 to 2017. We tested our model using satelli...
Read Full Paper >
Formal-Informal Dichotomy of Work in IndiaThis study tries to comprehend the facets of the increasing informalisation of work in India. It uses a deductive approach to analyse the secondary data and literature on the subject. Informalisation of the workforce is not a unique phenomenon restricted to India. Reforms have expedited the informalisation of work in India, which has a detrimental impact on the nature of newly ...
Read Full Paper >