Estimating the Impact of Foreign Trade on GDP Growth in Sweden

Evidence from Historical Data 1800–2000

Manuchehr Irandoust

Published: September 2017

This paper uses historic economic data to review Swedish foreign trade and industrial policy over the period 1800–2000. The long-term causal relationships between imports, exports and economic growth are examined. The results show that there exists a long-term relationship between imports, exports and growth and that the causality is bidirectional between the variables, implying a feedback effect. The findings indicate there was no productivity gap between Sweden and the rest of the world; the country did not violate its international budget constraint; growth- and export-promoting policies were successful; and intra-industry trade had a significant role in shaping Sweden’s exports and imports.

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