Anticipating Artistic Success

Lessons from history

David Galenson

Published: June 2005


The recent history of modern art provides clues as to how important artists can be identified before their work becomes generally known. Advanced art has been dominated by young conceptual innovators since the late 1950s, and theimportance of formal art education in the training of leading artists has also increased during this period. In the United States, a few schools have been particularly prominent. Auction market records reveal that during the past five decades the Yale School of Art has produced a series of graduates who have achieved great success commercially as well as critically. Recognizing Yale’s role can allow collectors to identify important artists before they become widely recognized, and therefore before their early innovative work rises in value.



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More Papers From This Author in World Economics:


The Life Cycles of Modern Artists

There have been two very different life cycles for great modern artists: some have made their major contributions early in their careers, while others have produced their best work later in their lives. These patterns have been associated with different artistic goals and working methods: artists who peak late are motivated by aesthetic considerations and work by trial and error, whereas artists who peak early are motivated by conceptual concerns and plan their work in advance. This paper applies this analysis to the careers of the leading members from the two generations of painters who made New York the center of the art world in the 1950s and ‘60s. The results not only yield a new understanding of the life cycles of creative individuals, but also provide new insights into the rationale behind the prices paid for works of art at auction.

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