Can the Dollar be Replaced as the Dominant Reserve Currency?

Recent changes in US trade and fiscal policies represent a threat to the global trading order and the domestic financial stability of the US economy, and ultimately the dominant reserve currency status of the dollar. This paper considers two alternatives. One is the shift to a multipolar reserve currency system involving other currencies, such as the euro and renminbi. However, it will take considerable time for these two currencies to match the dollar’s use in international transactions. The EU and China are also much weaker in their provision of “safe” assets that global investors look for. The other alternative involves a shift to a much wider use of the multilateral reserve asset issued by the IMF (i.e., the SDR). The SDR played an important role in the international response to the global financial crisis of 2008–09 and the COVID-19 crisis of 2020–21. Major changes and time would be required to make the SDR a substitute for the dollar. Such changes are only likely to be considered by the global community in the wake of a major financial crisis.

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The Effect of Listing Geography on Stock Prices

The paper examines if a stock’s exchange listing location (New York vs. Europe) affects its price, challenging the efficient-market hypothesis, amid a growing valuation gap where US equities made up 60.5% of the global market in 2024. It critiques a Financial Times article from 17 March, 2025, which studied 12 European firms adding US listings, finding methodological issues like small sample size, inconsistent event windows (400–4000 days) and focusing on additional listings rather than full relisting. Using a difference-in-difference regression, the authors analyse 15 companies that delisted from Euronext and relisted in New York against 15 control firms, with standardised 53-day event windows, finding a 4.77% stock price drop post-relisting. The results suggest listing geography does not boost valuations, supporting the efficient-market hypothesis with price declines possibly due to investor unfamiliarity or perceived management tactics, though small sample size and confounders warrant cautious interpretation.

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Industrial Policy: No Longer a Dirty Word but Still Misunderstood

The paper traces industrial policy (IP) from Alexander Hamilton’s 1791 advocacy for US manufacturing to modern examples like Japan’s MITI and South Korea’s export-driven growth, highlighting China’s rise as a global manufacturing powerhouse through extensive IP use, and noting the recent resurgence of IP in the US and Europe, as seen in Biden’s and Trump’s policies and the Draghi Report’s call for European competitiveness. South Korea’s economic ascent, driven by the 1970s Heavy and Chemical Industry initiative, relied on export-oriented policies, directed credit to chaebol, competitive exchange rates, and robust planning via the Economic Planning Board, offering a model for EMDEs, unlike Brazil’s failed attempts to protect inefficient industries, while Vietnam’s FDI-led approach shows a successful alternative. China’s “Made in China 2025” plan, targeting dominance in 10 key industries, has significantly influenced global markets, particularly affecting South Korea, with subsidies to state-owned enterprises raising US concerns about unfair trade practices, though global consumers benefit from cheaper imports, the concentrated job losses in places like the US Rust Belt fuel political backlash. The paper advises EMDEs to focus on attracting FDI to gain skills and technology rather than picking winners, as most lack the capacity for aggressive IPs, while advanced economies’ increasing use of IPs (e.g., US Chips Act, Europe’s Draghi Report) requires careful targeting to avoid wasteful subsidies, with a call for global cooperation to mitigate negative externalities and revitalise frameworks like the G20.

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Unveiling the Impact of the Gig Economy on Workforce Dynamics in India

The Indian economy is witnessing a paradigm shift in workforce dynamics due to fast adoption of the internet and increasing penetration of smartphones and digital platforms. The present study seeks to understand the economic contribution of gig economy from the perspective of Indian economy. It will assess the challenges posed by the gig economy for the workforce and to comprehend the impact of platform-based gig work on economic empowerment of workforce in India. The allure of gig economy lies in its flexible work environment, independence, opportunities to work in areas of interest, and better work-life balance. However, it poses many challenges to freelancers, including low-paid jobs, the plight of female gig workers, lack of social benefits, and job security. Therefore, policymakers need to design interventions that address the nuanced intricacies of the platform-based gig economy to guarantee full rights, benefits, and protection, while also creating an enabling environment for its sustainable growth.

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The IMF at 80

The IMF has existed for 80 years. Over this period, the structure of the world economy has changed significantly. There has also been an evolution in economic thinking although not all economists agree with one another. The Bretton Woods system, of which the Fund was a key part, collapsed in the early 1970s. This raised the issue of whether the Fund was needed in the ‘modern era’. Periodically the Fund’s very existence has been called into question, but it has proved resilient. Fundamentally, the role of the IMF is to try and offset key areas of market failure. This defines inter-related adjustment and financing roles for the Fund, with both of them having bilateral and systemic dimensions. At the age of 80, there is a myriad of issues that the Fund needs to confront. But finding answers is complex and difficult. Moving forward, and under the second Trump administration, the commitment of the United States to the IMF is in some doubt. There is a trend away from multilateralism, and a movement towards international coercion rather than cooperation in the conduct international economic affairs. Many commentators and politicians are prepared to express a point of view about the Fund, but they are frequently not based on firm analysis and empirical evidence.

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Analysing Factors of Economic Growth in BRICS Countries

Industrial production, intra-BRICS trade, natural resource income, and foreign direct investment significantly drive GDP per capita growth in BRICS countries from 2010 to 2022. Domestic credit to the private sector may hinder economic growth, indicating a need for balanced credit allocation policies. Moderate inflation has minimal impact on economic growth, though stable inflation is crucial for macroeconomic stability. The study uses panel analysis with FMOLS and DOLS to assess key economic variables across BRICS nations. Limitations include aggregated data overlooking country-specific factors and challenges from global events, suggesting future research should focus on institutional factors and granular datasets.

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Smart Governance: Analysing GDP Growth and Key Economic Indicators in Pakistan

The study integrates human capital theory, Okun’s Law, and capital accumulation, using econometric tools such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling, and Error Correction Model (ECM) to analyse the unemployment-GDP growth relationship in Pakistan. GDP growth, labour force participation, and fixed capital formation are stationary at the first difference, while unemployment is stationary at the level, indicating different integration properties among the variables. In the short run, unemployment negatively affects GDP, whereas labour force participation and fixed capital formation have positive effects; in the long run, reducing unemployment is critical for sustainable GDP growth. The study advocates for policies targeting unemployment reduction, increased labour market participation, and enhanced capital formation to support resilient economic development in Pakistan.

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The Conduct of Macroprudential Regulation and Monetary Policy on Financial Stability

The study investigates the impact of macroprudential and monetary policy shocks on financial and macroeconomic conditions, emphasising their complementary roles in achieving financial stability across 11 OECD economies from 2000 Q1 to 2018 Q4. Using a vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology within a dynamic data panel model, the analysis reveals that contractionary monetary policy shocks reduce financial variables but increase price levels, a phenomenon termed the “Price Puzzle”. Tightening macroprudential policy is found to negatively affect credit growth and economic output, highlighting its role in moderating financial excesses but potentially dampening economic activity. Effective coordination between macroprudential and monetary policies is essential to minimise political conflicts and enhance financial system stability at both macroeconomic and financial levels.

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Assessing Economic Data Quality

The paper explores a variety of data analytics methods—such as Benford’s Law for detecting manipulation, Markov Switching Models for economic cycle analysis, time-series anomaly detection for data integrity, and volatility analysis for stability—to assess the quality of economic data. It highlights the use of advanced techniques like Bayesian inference and resampling (e.g., bootstrap methods) alongside cross-source comparisons—such as GDP validation with satellite data, inflation checks with online pricing, and employment trends with job posting data—to identify discrepancies and enhance reliability. Thematic analysis reveals an evolving landscape of economic data assessment, progressing from probabilistic approaches to resampling techniques, with interdisciplinary integration of data analytics, econometrics, and business policy to address data quality challenges like noise, biases, and structural shifts. While these methods improve economic forecasting and policy decisions, limitations persist, including sensitivity to model assumptions, regional biases in alternative data sources, and challenges in capturing informal economies, prompting future research into advanced machine learning and hybrid validation models.

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The Mar-a-Lago Accord and Beyond

In addition to policies focusing on trade, the Trump Administration has also proposed policies that will affect the international monetary system. The so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord envisages putting pressure on other countries to help reduce the value of the US dollar. The Mar-a-Lago Accord is loosely modelled on the Plaza Accord of 1985, but the world is a very different place in 2025. Trying to eliminate bi-lateral trade deficits is a misplaced policy, as is exclusive reliance on dollar depreciation to achieve it. The contemporary policies of the US Administration are likely to have significant, far-reaching and lasting negative effects on the nature and operation of the international monetary system and the world economy.

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Assisting Ukraine in War

The paper proposes GDP-contingent loans (GCLs) as a novel war-financing mechanism for Ukraine, linking repayments to economic performance (e.g., real GDP growth) and thus balancing donor burden and sustainable repayment. GCLs are inspired by income-contingent loans used in higher education; featuring a repayment-free threshold (e.g., pre-war GDP levels) and repayments as a proportion of each year’s GDP growth (e.g., 35% or 50%). Simulations comparing GCLs and standard loans (SLs) under Ukraine’s context (e.g., $100 billion loan, 2025–2045) show GCLs prevent debt traps and stagnation by pausing repayments during recessions and pre-recovery phases, unlike SLs, which impose fixed burdens regardless of economic conditions. Incorporating fiscal multipliers highlights GCLs’ superiority, as SLs’ early repayments reduce GDP growth (e.g., $232 billion by 2049 vs. $301 billion under GCLs), while GCLs’ countercyclical design supports recovery. Our analysis suggests that a GCL is a valuable debt-management instrument that would benefit both lenders and Ukraine (or any crisis-struck country); offering lower default risk, better income smoothing, and greater political acceptability.

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The Ripple Effects of Economic Sanctions

Economic sanctions on Iran, Pakistan, Russia, and Cuba from 1990 to 2022 restrict trade, and impact population growth and life expectancy, yet paradoxically increases GDP per capita as these countries adapt by diversifying trade partners, though this comes with significant socioeconomic costs. The study reveals that sanctions lead to surging unemployment due to trade disruptions, increase dependency rates, reduce consumer spending, and exacerbate poverty, inequality, and social unrest in the targeted nations. Sanctions destabilise markets in these countries, causing currency depreciation, inflation, and liquidity crises, which hinder investment and economic recovery, amplifying the broader ripple effects throughout their economies.

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Evolving Power Structures in Global Governance

The international system has shifted from unipolarity to multipolarity, with emerging powers like China, India, and the European Union gaining influence, reducing the dominance of Western-led institutions such as the World Bank and IMF, as evidenced by economic data like GDP growth and FDI trends. The study analyses this transition using Offensive Realism, which highlights power competition, and Neoliberal Institutionalism, which emphasises cooperation through institutions, supported by empirical evidence of rising alternative frameworks like BRICS, the SCO, and the AIIB. Multipolarity brings opportunities for economic diversification and balanced governance but also challenges, including fragmented decision-making, regional rivalries, and declining influence of traditional financial bodies, alongside increased military spending, particularly by China. To ensure stability in this evolving order, the paper advocates for structural reforms in international institutions to reflect new power dynamics, enhanced multilateral diplomacy, and updated security and economic crisis management strategies.

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Tangible and Intangible Capital

Major changes in national accounting were introduced between 1999 and 2012 by recategorizing spending on intellectual property (IP or IPP) as ‘final’ rather than ‘intermediate’ output. The changes, which sought to give more weight to the impact of technology on the economy, were accepted for their aprioristic plausibility. Their validity can, however, be tested by measuring the returns on equity when IP is treated either as a form of final output or of intermediate output. When IP is treated as intermediate the returns on equity are consistent with those derived independently from stock market data, but when IP is categorized as final output they are not. The change has therefore been a mistake and should be rescinded. This error is one of many examples of a widespread, unrealistic, indeed romantic attitude to technology, which has been encouraged by the stock market success of high technology companies and the tendency of journalists and investors to confuse the economy with the stock market. Growth depends on improvements in technology and the incentives or restraints on corporate management to exploit them. We do not appear to be able to accelerate the rate at which technology improves. But we can change incentives. The romantic attitude to technology is hindering changes to incentives and thus holding back growth. One of the adverse consequences of the error made in recategorizing IP has been to divert attention from the need to stimulate tangible investment, which is the only policy likely to significantly accelerate trend growth. The key incentives are taxes and subsidies. Corporation tax falls on investment, not on shareholders, and its net revenue should be reduced by cutting the rate or increasing the subsidies on tangible investment.

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Growth of an Economic Giant

The economic expansion of the People's Republic of China is the most rapid continuous increase by a major economy in world history. China has become an economic giant, the world’s second-largest economy based on GDP and the largest based on purchasing power parity. This study identifies major historical events across millennia relevant to China’s continual economic development. For example, early Chinese accounting practices provided basic conceptual benefits that were similar to modern Western practices. Confucius’ instructions about benevolence, morality, loyalty, unity, and trustworthiness fashioned a framework to guide individuals on interactions with others, which had a significant and enduring influence on the culture and business environment in China. Findings offer insights into China’s history, from ancient origins to the present day, notably, the business and accounting practices that laid the groundwork for China’s modern-day economic growth.

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Global vs Local Ethics of Official Statistics

The paper explores the philosophical underpinnings of the ethics of official statistics and provides a basic conceptual classification. It distinguishes between universal ethics, supranational codifications, and national/local ethics, and examines these distinctions through various philosophical perspectives. The paper emphasizes that ethics of official statistics can only be fully understood in the context of their foundational objective(s), whether universal or alternative. It proposes that the process of discovering ethics involves critique and reformulation to address deficiencies, given that local approaches often lead to statistical quality that is inconsistent with the demands of globalization and integration for highly reliable and internationally comparable statistics produced as a global public good.

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Global Imbalances After COVID and War

Global imbalances as reflected by current account balance of payments deficits in some countries and surpluses in others increased sharply during 2019–23. Conventional balance of payments theory that emphasizes aggregate demand and factors affecting expenditure and the monetary sector do not provide a complete explanation of the imbalances. Supply side factors associated with the COVID 19 pandemic and the Russia/Ukraine war played a key role through their impact on commodity prices and transportation costs. A full understanding of global imbalances requires political factors and natural events to be incorporated. There is a need to look, beneath, behind and beyond the economics. Projecting future imbalances is difficult since many of the determining factors carry a high degree of uncertainty and interact with one another. In principle, greater international macroeconomic policy coordination could help to reduce future imbalances, but political economy factors make this difficult to achieve.

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The Political Economy of Choice

The article aims to explore the relationship between the misery index and voter decisions, positioning the misery index as a tool to assess macroeconomic policy effectiveness. It employs analysis and synthesis for voter behaviour patterns, the index method for calculating the misery index, and comparison methods to link macroeconomic processes with voter behaviour. Macroeconomic indicators significantly influence voter decisions, demonstrating the misery index's utility in evaluating macroeconomic indicators. The misery index for 2019–2022 shows Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and Sudan in the worst positions, while Ireland, China, Switzerland, and Japan are the best. The coronavirus pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war exacerbated the misery index, causing economic recessions and inflationary pressures globally, particularly in Eastern and Central Europe.

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A Note on the Lódz Ghetto Hyperinflation

Primary data reveals one new instance of hyperinflation occurring in the Lódz Ghetto in 1944. Two instances of hyperinflation in the Lódz Ghetto occurred during World War II; in March of 1942 and February of 1944, monthly inflation in the ghetto reached 232.42% and 321.16%, respectively. The 1944 episode of hyperinflation is the 67th episode in world history and the sixth instance of hyperinflation documented in Poland, making Poland the country with the most hyperinflations in world history.

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Premature Deindustrialization

The article investigates premature deindustrialization in 13 countries in the Middle East and North African region from 2007 to 2019. Premature deindustrialization occurs when countries experience a decline in manufacturing employment/output before reaching advanced income levels, as coined by Rodrick in 2016. The study uses a System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) analysis and finds that higher population and higher per capita GDP influence industrialization patterns. To prevent premature deindustrialization, MENA region governments need to address institutional weaknesses and structural challenges through appropriate policies.

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