Bruce Chapman

Email: Bruce.Chapman@anu.edu.au


Bruce ChapmanBruce Chapman is an Emeritus Professor of Economics at the Australian National University, specialising in labour and education economics, and income-contingent loans. He has a PhD from Yale University and has published around 300 papers/chapters in some of the top international economics journals and has several books/edited volumes. He devised the world’s first national income-contingent loan scheme for higher education, implemented in Australia in 1989, and has been involved in student loan transformation in many other countries. He has led contingent loans research for over 30 years with reference to many disparate social and economic areas.




Papers Published in World Economics:


Assisting Ukraine in War

The paper proposes GDP-contingent loans (GCLs) as a novel war-financing mechanism for Ukraine, linking repayments to economic performance (e.g., real GDP growth) and thus balancing donor burden and sustainable repayment. GCLs are inspired by income-contingent loans used in higher education; featuring a repayment-free threshold (e.g., pre-war GDP levels) and repayments as a proportion of each year’s GDP growth (e.g., 35% or 50%). Simulations comparing GCLs and standard loans (SLs) under Ukraine’s context (e.g., $100 billion loan, 2025–2045) show GCLs prevent debt traps and stagnation by pausing repayments during recessions and pre-recovery phases, unlike SLs, which impose fixed burdens regardless of economic conditions. Incorporating fiscal multipliers highlights GCLs’ superiority, as SLs’ early repayments reduce GDP growth (e.g., $232 billion by 2049 vs. $301 billion under GCLs), while GCLs’ countercyclical design supports recovery. Our analysis suggests that a GCL is a valuable debt-management instrument that would benefit both lenders and Ukraine (or any crisis-struck country); offering lower default risk, better income smoothing, and greater political acceptability.

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