Call for Papers on India

Papers welcomed on all aspects of economic activity.


Papers of particular interest are on the accuracy of economic and demographic statistics, on the size and shape of the informal economy, on income and capital wealth per capita, inequality, the debt burden, and similar subjects.

Papers on all aspects of statistical methods for producing economic data, including traditional and non-traditional means of data collection are equally welcome. And papers on the practical problems of gathering data in large populous developing countries is a further area of interest.
See submission guidelines...

A paper from our sister organisation World Economics shown here illustrate areas of particular concern and interest.



Indian GDP Growth Leaves Pakistan Far Behind


Comparing the economic performance of India and Pakistan is not so easy, as neither country excels in the production of reliable GDP data. Indian GDP data is rated C grade by World Economics, which theoretically makes the numbers believable. Pakistan clearly lags with D Grade GDP data. However Indian data is classified as at the bottom of the C grated countries, and Pakistan not so far from the top of the D classification. So, in theory the difference in data utility may not be great.

Where, Pakistan lags badly is in the crucial Governance field. Poor Governance is frequently associated with Government interference with economic data (studies have shown that economic data from countries ruled by Dictators can be exaggerated by as much as 30%. Whilst not an out and out dictatorship, politics in Pakistan appear to be far from those of a tranquil democracy, and there seems no reason to suppose that data manipulation has been greater in India than in Pakistan. On balance it seems likely that Indian GDP data are more reliable than those produced in Pakistan.


World Economics GDP data (in Purchasing Power Parity terms, and adjusted for out of date GDP Base Years, and the size of the Informal economy) suggests it is likely that GDP growth in India has far outstripped that seen in Pakistan over the last quarter century.

► See data report on worldeconomics.com



December Editorial

Dangerously Misleading Debt Data

The most powerful form of lie is the omission – George Orwell


Debt poses a serious problem in most developed countries, and in many developing ones. But statistical omission and obfuscation hide the true problem. Rapidly rising numbers of old age dependants plus unfunded pay-as-you-go social security schemes are already causing unrest. More is likely to follow as state backed promises of medical and old age support become impossible to fulfil.

The problem is far greater than official debt figures suggest. Government debt data in most countries massively understates the real situation. Almost all commentary on country debt is focussed on official Government country debt as a percentage of GDP. But....

A Selection of Recent Journal Papers


The Informal Economy of the BRICS

This article evaluates the impact of trade liberalisation on the informal economy in the BRICS countries, which have significant unorganised sectors and trade policy changes. The article uses panel data from 1996 to 2015 to measure informality based on the method of Kaufmann and Kaliberda, which estimates the size of the informal sector as the difference between official GDP an...

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Formal-Informal Dichotomy of Work in India
Author: Sazzad Parwez

This study tries to comprehend the facets of the increasing informalisation of work in India. It uses a deductive approach to analyse the secondary data and literature on the subject. Informalisation of the workforce is not a unique phenomenon restricted to India. Reforms have expedited the informalisation of work in India, which has a detrimental impact on the nature of newly ...

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A Panel Analysis of Inequality and Driving Factors of Economic Growth Across Economies

The paper examines the relationship between income inequality and economic growth, using various factors like the Gini index, initial per capita GDP, trade and financial openness, financial deepening, population growth, skill premium, energy use, price level ratio, and adult female mortality from 1990 to 2020. Statistical techniques such as ordinary least squares, fixed effects...

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The Missing Piece: A Copyright Index

This paper aims to add to the literature on intellectual property protection by creating an index/database to reflect the strength of copyright and related rights for 109 countries for 2023. The index is primarily based on a range of factors like coverage of the law, membership in copyright conventions and its duration, copyright applications and enforcement mechanisms. The e...

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Modern Money Theory

The article criticizes modern money theory (MMT), which is a macroeconomic policy that aims to achieve full employment by using money-financed fiscal deficits, without using any formal modelling. The article claims that MMT policy would not work in an open and internationally highly financially integrated economy, because it would either cause the money stock to grow unsustaina...

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Trade Reforms and Smooth Labour Market Adjustments in India?

There is a growing concern among economists that the trade policy reforms resulting from India’s growing participation in various multilateral and bilateral agreements has not benefitted all workers engaged in the manufacturing sector. As per existing literature, reform-led reallocation of workers from contracting to expanding sectors will be relatively less costly, if intra-in...

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Enriching the Human Development Index through the Inclusion of Affordable Healthy Diet

This article presents research findings that support adding ‘affordable healthy diet’ as an indicator in the ‘Long and healthy life’ dimension of the Human Development Index (HDI). The article also aims to link the Sustainable Development Goal 2 (End Hunger, Achieve Food Security and Improved Nutrition and Promote Sustainable Agriculture) with the HDI, by showing the importance...

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Inequality: A Problem for the Indian Economy

The economic slow-down and COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted India’s extreme crisis inequality. India is an unequal country: 84% of household sector income declined in 2021, at the same time that the number of billionaires went up from 102 to 142. According to the World Inequality Report, the income of the top 10% of the population is 20 times that of the bottom 50% and this g...

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Governments Manipulate Data
Author: Bruno S. Frey

Governments widely manipulate official economic and social data—but the public tends to disregard this fact. There is extensive empirical evidence that governments extensively manipulate official data. National statistical offices should be independent of their government to fight such manipulation, and alternative data producers should be supported. The public should be aware ...

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The Determinants to Finance the Fiscal Deficit

Bolivia faces a shortage of foreign currency, especially dollars, due to a decline in natural gas exports. This decline leads to reduced foreign exchange income and savings, impacting the productive community’s social economic model and causing macroeconomic imbalance. The research identifies independent variables affected by this shortage, all denominated in dollars: gas expor...

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Trade in the Shadows

Accurate, timely and reliable statistics on international trade in goods and services are of considerable academic and policy relevance. A major source of illicit financial flows (IFFs) out of developing countries accrues from the under-invoicing of commodity exports. Researchers have highlighted the critical importance of reliable trade data to estimate the magnitude of IFFs a...

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Argentina, Crises and the International Monetary Fund
Author: Graham Bird

Argentina has a long history of economic, financial and currency crises and has been exhibiting crisis characteristics since 2018. Crises in Argentina may be analysed using currency crisis models and in particular, experience seems to fit the first-generation model. After a break of 15 years, Argentina has had programs with the International Monetary Fund, a standby agreement i...

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Are Purchasing Power Parity Exchange Rates Misleading in Oil-Rich Gulf Countries?

This article examines the accuracy of purchasing power parity (PPP) rates in Saudi Arabia. It highlights concerns about the perceived wealth of Saudi citizens based on interviews with American expatriates and wage statistics. It discusses the limitations of the Saudi International Comparison Program (ICP) data, including variations in data quality, differences in product select...

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Institutional Capital in EU Candidate Countries

In economic theory, a growing understanding of the crucial connection between institutional capital and economic development. Modern economists stress that institutional capital is key to shaping an economic progress, influencing the policies of organisations like the World Bank and IMF, as North (1994) points out. This is especially important for developing countries. Efficien...

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Measuring the Informal Economy in Morocco

This paper, relying on the electricity consumption method, attempts to both measure the size of the informal economy in Morocco and construct a larger time series dataset for the Moroccan informal economy. We use the Kaufmann and Kaliberda (1996) model to calculate the size of the informal economy over the period 1971 to 2014. The results show that this hidden part of the econ...

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Statistical Data Collection Challenges amid COVID-19 Pandemic

The importance of reliable statistical data is even more urgent in the context of the coronavirus crisis, in terms of managing the risks for public health, restarting the world economy and addressing the long-term economic and social impact of the pandemic. Government lockdowns, social distancing and work from home restrictions, imposed to contain the spread of COVID-19, pose i...

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Assessing Economic Data Integrity Amidst Sovereign Default

The sovereign default of Sri Lanka in April 2022 has sparked concerns about the accuracy and reliability of official economic data, including GDP, inflation, and unemployment figures. The integration of statistical agencies under government ministries in developing countries like Sri Lanka raises concerns about political influence and data integrity. The inflation data in Sri L...

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Measuring the Non-observed Economy in Vietnam

This article takes advantage of new political demand at the government’s highest level to focus on measurement of the informal economy in Vietnam from a statistical perspective. The main challenges, concepts and definitions regarding the informal economy within the framework of the non-observed economy are reviewed. A discussion of alternative methodologies for measuring the ...

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Shedding Light on the Shadow Economy

The shadow or informal economy covers all economic activities which are hidden from official authorities for monetary, regulatory and institutional reasons. Although widely used, multiple indicator-multiple cause (MIMIC) models have been criticised, and we develop a modified model and database covering 157 countries over the years 1991 to 2017. We tested our model using satelli...

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The Debt-Openness Puzzle

The ‘debt-openness puzzle’ is investigated in this research by determining the effect of trade liberalisation on rising debt levels and if BRICS nations trade openness and government debt have a different connection than advanced economies. Using panel generalised method of moments (PGMM) regressions, we investigate the causes of debt in the advanced, developing, and BRICS econ...

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