Greece’s Economy’s Outstanding Recovery
Growth in Greece’s GDP ran faster than the Eurozone average in 2022. Foreign direct investment reached record highs and tourism rebounded at 2019 levels. The country proved resilient to the energy crisis despite the worsening macroeconomic outlook in the euro area. Regaining investment grade status in 2023 is a feasible target as the distance from this milestone is just one step and Greece’s credit profile has substantially improved. Over the coming years, will Greek economy continue to achieve considerable and sustainable growth rates? The pandemic and energy crises have further increased the urgent need to tackle both long-standing and looming challenges.
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Greece’s Economy’s Outstanding Recovery
Growth in Greece’s GDP ran faster than the Eurozone average in 2022. Foreign direct investment reached record highs and tourism rebounded at 2019 levels. The country proved resilient to the energy crisis despite the worsening macroeconomic outlook in the euro area. Regaining investment grade status in 2023 is a feasible target as the distance from this milestone is just one step and Greece’s credit profile has substantially improved. Over the coming years, will Greek economy continue to achieve considerable and sustainable growth rates? The pandemic and energy crises have further increased the urgent need to tackle both long-standing and looming challenges.
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What Shipping Can Tell Us About Europe’s Efforts to Face the Risk of COVID-19-Induced ‘Japanification’
Shipping leads the ‘dance’ on the way up and if this is indeed true, the post-COVID-19 economic recovery should not be long, if one is to judge from the relative prosperity of containerised shipping as of Q2, 2020. Most EU member states may face a new risk ahead: ‘Japanification’, an unwillingness to increase household spending and often business expenditure/demand, along with the inability of monetary policy to balance savings and investments. When things get better, and the COVID-19 infection curve flattens close to zero, European leaders will have to come up with new ideas on the rebirth of the European dream, if they want to prevent a new round of authoritarianism and populism throughout Europe.
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Greek Economy: Between Optimism and Substandard Growth
Is Greece’s economy back to normal after the victory of liberal-conservatives in last summer’s elections? The Greek economy is certainly out of the doldrums but structural problems are still in place. The economy desperately needs foreign capital inflows, the most challenging bet for the new Prime Minister K. Mitsotakis. What do statistical data tell us about 2020 economic prospects? What will be the effect of covid-19 on the economy?
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The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China’s European Ambitions
Recent research shows that a 10% improvement in connectivity between countries along the “Maritime Silk Road” would deliver a 3% decrease in Chinese trade costs, which would in turn boost China’s imports and exports by around 6% and 9% respectively. We identify two ‘missing links’ of BRI: a) connecting the Caspian- to the Black Sea, from Turkmenistan to Romania (branching to Istanbul), and from there – through the port of Constanza and the Danube-Rhine fluvial corridor- all the way up to the North Sea, to Rotterdam in particular; b) connecting the Upper Persian Gulf port system to the Mediterranean. COSCO’s target for Piraeus is for it to become the biggest European port over the next decade, doubling its cargo handling capacity.
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Davos 2019 in the Uncharted Waters of Digital Globalization
Western world leaders in Davos 2019 seemed unable to handle changes propelled by the wave of digital globalization. Geopolitical tensions and “wealth gap politics” are among the major concerns for the current global economy. Risks are related to the extent of the expected hard landing of the global economy.
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An Economic Comparison of Greece and Italy
In Greece and Italy, populist parties have taken power in recent years, a result of coalition between radical left and far-right parties. Both countries are of concern to the European Commission—Greece’s ‘enhanced surveillance’ could end in another bail-out program; Italy is pursuing its budget deficit dispute. Greece and Italy share many economic structural weaknesses in the size of public sector deficits, in the taxation of labour, corporate taxes, and high levels of regulation. Finally, the current and future growth rates of both Greece and Italy are inadequate and the political climate is highly polarized, radical, with no culture of compromising.
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The Ten-Year Crash Anniversary
The ten-year anniversary of the 2008 crash and the unprecedented length of the bull (stock) market since then is an opportunity to reflect on the crash’s roots. A result of the bear market between 2000 and 2002 was the Sarbanes–Oxley Act that separated the business of consulting from the conflicting one of auditing. Unfortunately regulators and politicians have not learned their lessons from 2008 in order to correct the real causes of that catastrophe. The aftermath of the 2008 crash has not led to the separation of the ‘one-stop financial shop’ banks, servicing both buying and selling clients.
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Free Trade, Protectionism, and the Global Economy
Free trade benefits consumers, but has harmed less-skilled workers in western countries fuelling polarization and the rise of nationalistic populism. Despite U.S. President Trump’s contradictory stance on tariffs, trade policy is closely connected with the level of the dollar as well. Policy actions which reduce the value of the dollar might fuel a currency war and a global trade backlash with serious negative consequences in living standards. A Court of International Trade for dissolving disputes among countries could help avert race-to-the-bottom tariff war or even prevent a currency war?
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Greece and Ireland
In this short paper, we deal with a comparison of the economic policies that Ireland and Greece have followed since the early 1990s on four fronts. We do that in four sections correspondingly. We begin with the general macroeconomic environment and policies’ comparison. We continue with the public-sector finances policies. After that, we deal with the structural policy reforms pursued in both countries in the last 20 years, following which we continue with taxation policies. Finally, we conclude, focusing on the prospects of both countries to exit the crisis.
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Understanding the Greek Crisis
This paper focuses on the distortions that the Greek public debt has imposed on the Greek banking system, and suggests how these can be unwound. The low level of competitiveness of the Greek economy, which is well below the competitiveness of the developed countries, poses a great challenge for the Greek banks. At the same time it puts at risk Greece’s economy ability to service both the private and public debt, which, as an aggregate, are comparable to the indebtedness of the developed nations. An adjustment of economic activity to match the current low level of competitiveness will increase the risks faced by the financial system and make an orderly servicing of the debt of the economy very challenging. It follows that only one reasonable policy option remains: to increase the competitiveness of the economy through an aggressive reform agenda, so that it will match its level of indebtedness, and through the resulting growth shift the excessive debt of the public sector to the private sector.
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