Call for Papers on Asia

Papers welcomed on all aspects of economic activity.


Papers of particular interest are on the accuracy of economic and demographic statistics, on the size and shape of the informal economy, on income and capital wealth per capita, inequality, the debt burden, and similar subjects.

Papers on all aspects of statistical methods for producing economic data, including traditional and non-traditional means of data collection are equally welcome. And papers on the practical problems of gathering data in large populous developing countries is a further area of interest.
See submission guidelines...

A paper from our sister organisation World Economics shown here illustrate areas of particular concern and interest.



Asia: Now Larger than Africa, the Americas & Europe Combined


Asia has become the dominant commercial power in the world. Its share of global GDP, at 55%, is significantly larger than that of Africa, the Americas, and Europe combined.


Asia's share of Global GDP growth over the past decade is even more startling, at 70.5% of the total, compared with 6.7% for Africa, 9.1% for Europe and 13.8% for the Americas.


Note:
World Economics calculates GDP using World Bank data as a base, in Purchasing Power Parity terms, and adds estimates for the Informal Economy, and for countries using outdated Base Years.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Russia's economic pivot to the east, Russia is counted as an Asian country.

► See data report on worldeconomics.com



June Editorial

Dangerously Misleading Debt Data

The most powerful form of lie is the omission – George Orwell


Debt poses a serious problem in most developed countries, and in many developing ones. But statistical omission and obfuscation hide the true problem. Rapidly rising numbers of old age dependants plus unfunded pay-as-you-go social security schemes are already causing unrest. More is likely to follow as state backed promises of medical and old age support become impossible to fulfil.

The problem is far greater than official debt figures suggest. Government debt data in most countries massively understates the real situation. Almost all commentary on country debt is focussed on official Government country debt as a percentage of GDP. But....

A Selection of Recent Journal Papers


The Informal Economy of the BRICS

This article evaluates the impact of trade liberalisation on the informal economy in the BRICS countries, which have significant unorganised sectors and trade policy changes. The article uses panel data from 1996 to 2015 to measure informality based on the method of Kaufmann and Kaliberda, which estimates the size of the informal sector as the difference between official GDP an...

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Growth of an Economic Giant

The economic expansion of the People's Republic of China is the most rapid continuous increase by a major economy in world history. China has become an economic giant, the world’s second-largest economy based on GDP and the largest based on purchasing power parity. This study identifies major historical events across millennia relevant to China’s continual economic development....

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The Shadow Economy and Its Determinants

The shadow economy includes economic activities that are not recognized and unregulated by public authorities. These activities cause significant challenges for policymakers by reducing tax revenue and weakening regulatory frameworks. Understanding the factors that influence the shadow economy is crucial for developing effective policies to mitigate its adverse effects. This s...

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Assessing Economic Data Quality

The paper explores a variety of data analytics methods—such as Benford’s Law for detecting manipulation, Markov Switching Models for economic cycle analysis, time-series anomaly detection for data integrity, and volatility analysis for stability—to assess the quality of economic data. It highlights the use of advanced techniques like Bayesian inference and resampling (e.g., boo...

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The Components of the International Property Rights Index that Matter for Economic Growth

The International Property Rights Index (IPRI) is considered a credible source of information for the public and policymakers, focusing on its components’ impact on economic growth. The study analysed the GDP per capita of 13 EU countries over 13 years (2009–2021) to assess the significance of IPRI components on economic growth. The research utilized correlation and regression ...

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Evolving Power Structures in Global Governance

The international system has shifted from unipolarity to multipolarity, with emerging powers like China, India, and the European Union gaining influence, reducing the dominance of Western-led institutions such as the World Bank and IMF, as evidenced by economic data like GDP growth and FDI trends. The study analyses this transition using Offensive Realism, which highlights powe...

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Statistical Data Collection Challenges amid COVID-19 Pandemic

The importance of reliable statistical data is even more urgent in the context of the coronavirus crisis, in terms of managing the risks for public health, restarting the world economy and addressing the long-term economic and social impact of the pandemic. Government lockdowns, social distancing and work from home restrictions, imposed to contain the spread of COVID-19, pose i...

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Inequality: A Problem for the Indian Economy

The economic slow-down and COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted India’s extreme crisis inequality. India is an unequal country: 84% of household sector income declined in 2021, at the same time that the number of billionaires went up from 102 to 142. According to the World Inequality Report, the income of the top 10% of the population is 20 times that of the bottom 50% and this g...

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Governments Manipulate Data
Author: Bruno S. Frey

Governments widely manipulate official economic and social data—but the public tends to disregard this fact. There is extensive empirical evidence that governments extensively manipulate official data. National statistical offices should be independent of their government to fight such manipulation, and alternative data producers should be supported. The public should be aware ...

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A Note on the Lódz Ghetto Hyperinflation

Primary data reveals one new instance of hyperinflation occurring in the Lódz Ghetto in 1944. Two instances of hyperinflation in the Lódz Ghetto occurred during World War II; in March of 1942 and February of 1944, monthly inflation in the ghetto reached 232.42% and 321.16%, respectively. The 1944 episode of hyperinflation is the 67th episode in world history and the sixth insta...

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Trade in the Shadows

Accurate, timely and reliable statistics on international trade in goods and services are of considerable academic and policy relevance. A major source of illicit financial flows (IFFs) out of developing countries accrues from the under-invoicing of commodity exports. Researchers have highlighted the critical importance of reliable trade data to estimate the magnitude of IFFs a...

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Global vs Local Ethics of Official Statistics

The paper explores the philosophical underpinnings of the ethics of official statistics and provides a basic conceptual classification. It distinguishes between universal ethics, supranational codifications, and national/local ethics, and examines these distinctions through various philosophical perspectives. The paper emphasizes that ethics of official statistics can only be f...

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Measuring the Informal Economy in Morocco

This paper, relying on the electricity consumption method, attempts to both measure the size of the informal economy in Morocco and construct a larger time series dataset for the Moroccan informal economy. We use the Kaufmann and Kaliberda (1996) model to calculate the size of the informal economy over the period 1971 to 2014. The results show that this hidden part of the econ...

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The Mar-a-Lago Accord and Beyond
Author: Graham Bird

In addition to policies focusing on trade, the Trump Administration has also proposed policies that will affect the international monetary system. The so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord envisages putting pressure on other countries to help reduce the value of the US dollar. The Mar-a-Lago Accord is loosely modelled on the Plaza Accord of 1985, but the world is a very different place i...

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Are Purchasing Power Parity Exchange Rates Misleading in Oil-Rich Gulf Countries?

This article examines the accuracy of purchasing power parity (PPP) rates in Saudi Arabia. It highlights concerns about the perceived wealth of Saudi citizens based on interviews with American expatriates and wage statistics. It discusses the limitations of the Saudi International Comparison Program (ICP) data, including variations in data quality, differences in product select...

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Assisting Ukraine in War

The paper proposes GDP-contingent loans (GCLs) as a novel war-financing mechanism for Ukraine, linking repayments to economic performance (e.g., real GDP growth) and thus balancing donor burden and sustainable repayment. GCLs are inspired by income-contingent loans used in higher education; featuring a repayment-free threshold (e.g., pre-war GDP levels) and repayments as a prop...

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Tangible and Intangible Capital

Major changes in national accounting were introduced between 1999 and 2012 by recategorizing spending on intellectual property (IP or IPP) as ‘final’ rather than ‘intermediate’ output. The changes, which sought to give more weight to the impact of technology on the economy, were accepted for their aprioristic plausibility. Their validity can, however, be tested by measuring the...

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Measuring the Non-observed Economy in Vietnam

This article takes advantage of new political demand at the government’s highest level to focus on measurement of the informal economy in Vietnam from a statistical perspective. The main challenges, concepts and definitions regarding the informal economy within the framework of the non-observed economy are reviewed. A discussion of alternative methodologies for measuring the ...

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Shedding Light on the Shadow Economy

The shadow or informal economy covers all economic activities which are hidden from official authorities for monetary, regulatory and institutional reasons. Although widely used, multiple indicator-multiple cause (MIMIC) models have been criticised, and we develop a modified model and database covering 157 countries over the years 1991 to 2017. We tested our model using satelli...

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Formal-Informal Dichotomy of Work in India
Author: Sazzad Parwez

This study tries to comprehend the facets of the increasing informalisation of work in India. It uses a deductive approach to analyse the secondary data and literature on the subject. Informalisation of the workforce is not a unique phenomenon restricted to India. Reforms have expedited the informalisation of work in India, which has a detrimental impact on the nature of newly ...

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