The Eurozone’s Next Domino: Why Portugal is not Greece
Shalendra D. Sharma
& Sally Tam
Published: June 2012
With Greece’s problems taking a back seat with the approval of the second €130 bailout and bond-swap deal, attention has turned to Portugal – the other most troubled economy in the Eurozone. Will Portugal’s debts also prove unmanageable, requiring debt restructuring where private creditors are forced to take a big haircut, or will the €78 billion bailout Lisbon has received from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, and domestic structural reforms, be enough to stave off a Greek-style default? This paper illustrates that Portugal’s woes are different from those of Greece, Ireland and Spain. Given the structural conditions and deep commitment to reform and political will demonstrated by the Portuguese leaders and citizens alike, Portugal has a good chance to avoid Greece’s fate.