World Economics - Insight , Analysis and Data

World Economics - Insight , Analysis and Data
Further Fallout from the Global Financial Crisis
Adolfo Barajas, Ralph Chami, Raphael Espinoza & Heiko Hesse
World Economics, June 2011

We examine the recent credit slowdown in emerging markets from three analytical angles. First, we find that, similar to past history, a credit boom preceded the current slowdown in many emerging markets, and argue that, going forward, a protracted period of sluggish growth is likely. Second, we focus on a relatively understudied region – the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) – using a more detailed banking data. We uncover a key role played by bank funding, in particular, deposit growth and external borrowing slowed considerably, despite expansionary monetary policy. Finally, we show that bank-level fundamentals – capitalisation and loan quality – helped to explain differences in credit growth across banks and countries.
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